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Underlying Trends and Seasonality in UK Energy Demands: A Sectorial Analysis

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Author Info

  • Hunt, L.C.
  • Judge, G.
  • Ninomiya, Y.

Abstract

This paper demonstrates the importance for energy demand modelling of allowing for trends and seasonal effects that are stochastic in form. Inherent underlying trends may be non-linear and reflect not only technical progress, which usually produces greater energy efficiency, but also other factors such as changes in consumer tastes and the economic structure that may be working in the opposite direction.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Portsmouth University - Department of Economics in its series Papers with number 134.

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Length: 33 pages
Date of creation: 2000
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:fth:portec:134

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Postal: U.K.; University of Portsmouth; Department of Economics, Locksway Road, Milton, Southsea Hants PO4 8JF, UK
Phone: 44 (0)1705 844082
Fax: +44 (0)1705 844037
Web page: http://www.pbs.port.ac.uk/econ/index.html
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Keywords: ENERGY DEMAND ; EFFICIENCY ; INCOME;

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References

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  1. Beenstock, M. & Willcocks, P., 1981. "Energy consumption and economic activity in industrialized countries : The dynamic aggregate time series relationship," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 225-232, October.
  2. Lynk, Edward L, 1989. "The Demand for Energy by U.K. Manufacturing Industry," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 57(1), pages 1-16, March.
  3. Katarina Juselius & David F. Hendry, 2000. "Explaining Cointegration Analysis: Part II," Discussion Papers 00-20, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
  4. Fouquet, Roger & Pearson, Peter & Hawdon, David & Robinson, Colin & Stevens, Paul, 1997. "The future of UK final user energy demand," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 231-240, February.
  5. Beenstock, Michael & Wilcocks, Patrick, 1983. "Energy and economic activity: a reply to Kouris," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 212-212, July.
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  7. Harvey, Andrew & Scott, Andrew, 1994. "Seasonality in Dynamic Regression Models," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 104(427), pages 1324-45, November.
  8. Harvey, Andrew C & Koopman, Siem Jan, 1992. "Diagnostic Checking of Unobserved-Components Time Series Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(4), pages 377-89, October.
  9. Morana, Claudio, 2000. "Modelling Evolving Long-Run Relationships: An Application to the Italian Energy Market," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 47(1), pages 72-93, February.
  10. Inder, Brett, 1993. "Estimating long-run relationships in economics : A comparison of different approaches," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 57(1-3), pages 53-68.
  11. Welsch, Heinz, 1989. "The reliability of aggregate energy demand functions : An application of statistical specification error tests," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 285-292, October.
  12. Unander, Fridtjof & Karbuz, Sohbet & Schipper, Lee & Khrushch, Marta & Ting, Michael, 1999. "Manufacturing energy use in OECD countries: decomposition of long-term trends," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 27(13), pages 769-778, November.
  13. Smith, Clare & Hall, Stephen & Mabey, Nick, 1995. "Econometric modelling of international carbon tax regimes," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 133-146, April.
  14. Clements, Michael P & Madlener, Reinhard, 1999. "Seasonality, Cointegration, and Forecasting UK Residential Energy Demand," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 46(2), pages 185-206, May.
  15. Harvey, Andrew, 1997. "Trends, Cycles and Autoregressions," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(440), pages 192-201, January.
  16. Harvey, A C, et al, 1986. "Stochastic Trends in Dynamic Regression Models: An Application to the Employment-Output Equations," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 96(384), pages 975-85, December.
  17. Haas, Reinhard & Schipper, Lee, 1998. "Residential energy demand in OECD-countries and the role of irreversible efficiency improvements," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 421-442, September.
  18. Kouris, George, 1983. "Fuel consumption for road transport in the USA," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 89-99, April.
  19. Kouris, George, 1983. "Energy consumption and economic activity in industrialized economies--a note," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 207-212, July.
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