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Modelling and Forecasting Turkish Residential Electricity Demand

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  • Zafer Dilaver

    ()
    (Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), Department of Economics, University of Surrey)

  • Lester C Hunt

    ()
    (Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), Department of Economics, University of Surrey)

Abstract

This research investigates the relationship between Turkish residential electricity consumption, household total final consumption expenditure and residential electricity prices by applying the structural time series model to annual data over the period 1960 to 2008. Household total final consumption expenditure, real energy prices and an underlying energy demand trend are found to be important drivers of residential electricity demand with the estimated short run and the long run total final consumption expenditure elasticities being 0.38 and 1.57 respectively and the estimated short run and long run price elasticities being -0.09 and -0.38 respectively. Moreover, the estimated underlying energy demand trend, (which, as far as is known, has not been investigated before for the Turkish residential sector) should be of some benefit to Turkish decision makers in terms of energy planning. It provides information about the impact of the implementation of past policies, the influence of technical progress, the changes in consumer behaviour and the effects of energy market structure. Furthermore, based on the estimated equation, and different forecast assumptions, it is predicted that Turkish residential electricity consumption will be somewhere between 48 and 80 TWh by 2020 compared to 40 TWh in 2008.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), School of Economics, University of Surrey in its series Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), School of Economics Discussion Papers (SEEDS) with number 131.

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Length: 38 pages
Date of creation: Nov 2010
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in Energy Policy, 39(6), 2011, pp. 3117-3127. (Revised Version)
Handle: RePEc:sur:seedps:131

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Keywords: Turkish Residential Electricity Demand; Structural Time Series Model (STSM); Future Scenarios; Energy Demand Modelling and Forecasting.;

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References

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  1. Hunt, L.C. & Judge, G. & Ninomiya, Y., 2000. "Underlying Trends and Seasonality in UK Energy Demands: A Sectorial Analysis," Papers 134, Portsmouth University - Department of Economics.
  2. Lester C. Hunt & Guy Judge & Yashushi Ninomiya, 2000. "Modelling Technical Progress: An Application of the Stochastic Trend Model to UK Energy Demand," Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), School of Economics Discussion Papers (SEEDS) 99, Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), School of Economics, University of Surrey.
  3. Rao, B. Bhaskara, 2007. "Deterministic and stochastic trends in the time series models: A guide for the applied economist," MPRA Paper 3580, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Harvey, Andrew C & Koopman, Siem Jan, 1992. "Diagnostic Checking of Unobserved-Components Time Series Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(4), pages 377-89, October.
  5. Halicioglu, Ferda, 2007. "Residential electricity demand dynamics in Turkey," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 199-210, March.
  6. Jalles, Joao Tovar, 2009. "Structural Time Series Models and the Kalman Filter: a concise review," FEUNL Working Paper Series wp541, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Faculdade de Economia.
  7. Harvey, Andrew & Scott, Andrew, 1994. "Seasonality in Dynamic Regression Models," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 104(427), pages 1324-45, November.
  8. Hamzacebi, Coskun, 2007. "Forecasting of Turkey's net electricity energy consumption on sectoral bases," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 2009-2016, March.
  9. Himanshu A. Amarawickrama & Lester C. Hunt, 2007. "Electricity Demand for Sri Lanka: A Time Series Analysis," Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), School of Economics Discussion Papers (SEEDS) 118, Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), School of Economics, University of Surrey.
  10. Harvey, A C, et al, 1986. "Stochastic Trends in Dynamic Regression Models: An Application to the Employment-Output Equations," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 96(384), pages 975-85, December.
  11. Lester C. Hunt & Yasushi Ninomiya, 2003. "Unravelling Trends and Seasonality: A Structural Time Series Analysis of Transport Oil Demand in the UK and Japan," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 63-96.
  12. Lester C Hunt & Guy Judge & Yasushi Ninomiya, 2003. "Modelling Underlying Energy Demand Trends," Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), School of Economics Discussion Papers (SEEDS) 105, Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), School of Economics, University of Surrey.
  13. John Dimitropoulos & Lester C. Hunt & Guy Judge, 2004. "Estimating Underlying Energy Demand Trends using UK Annual Data," Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), School of Economics Discussion Papers (SEEDS) 108, Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), School of Economics, University of Surrey.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Zafer Dilaver & Lester C Hunt, 2011. "Turkish Aggregate Electricity Demand: An Outlook to 2020," Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), School of Economics Discussion Papers (SEEDS) 132, Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), School of Economics, University of Surrey.
  2. Rentizelas, Athanasios & Georgakellos, Dimitrios, 2014. "Incorporating life cycle external cost in optimization of the electricity generation mix," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 134-149.
  3. Jian Chai & Shubin Wang & Shouyang Wang & Ju’e Guo, 2012. "Demand Forecast of Petroleum Product Consumption in the Chinese Transportation Industry," Energies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 5(3), pages 577-598, March.
  4. Theodoridou, Ifigeneia & Karteris, Marinos & Mallinis, Georgios & Papadopoulos, Agis M. & Hegger, Manfred, 2012. "Assessment of retrofitting measures and solar systems' potential in urban areas using Geographical Information Systems: Application to a Mediterranean city," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 16(8), pages 6239-6261.
  5. Herrerias, M.J., 2013. "Seasonal anomalies in electricity intensity across Chinese regions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 1548-1557.
  6. Zhou, Shaojie & Teng, Fei, 2013. "Estimation of urban residential electricity demand in China using household survey data," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 394-402.

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