Modelling and Forecasting Turkish Residential Electricity Demand
AbstractThis research investigates the relationship between Turkish residential electricity consumption, household total final consumption expenditure and residential electricity prices by applying the structural time series model to annual data over the period 1960 to 2008. Household total final consumption expenditure, real energy prices and an underlying energy demand trend are found to be important drivers of residential electricity demand with the estimated short run and the long run total final consumption expenditure elasticities being 0.38 and 1.57 respectively and the estimated short run and long run price elasticities being -0.09 and -0.38 respectively. Moreover, the estimated underlying energy demand trend, (which, as far as is known, has not been investigated before for the Turkish residential sector) should be of some benefit to Turkish decision makers in terms of energy planning. It provides information about the impact of the implementation of past policies, the influence of technical progress, the changes in consumer behaviour and the effects of energy market structure. Furthermore, based on the estimated equation, and different forecast assumptions, it is predicted that Turkish residential electricity consumption will be somewhere between 48 and 80 TWh by 2020 compared to 40 TWh in 2008.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), School of Economics, University of Surrey in its series Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), School of Economics Discussion Papers (SEEDS) with number 131.
Length: 38 pages
Date of creation: Nov 2010
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in Energy Policy, 39(6), 2011, pp. 3117-3127. (Revised Version)
Turkish Residential Electricity Demand; Structural Time Series Model (STSM); Future Scenarios; Energy Demand Modelling and Forecasting.;
Other versions of this item:
- Dilaver, Zafer & Hunt, Lester C, 2011. "Modelling and forecasting Turkish residential electricity demand," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(6), pages 3117-3127, June.
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
- Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
- Q47 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy Forecasting
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2011-02-12 (All new papers)
- NEP-ARA-2011-02-12 (MENA - Middle East & North Africa)
- NEP-ENE-2011-02-12 (Energy Economics)
- NEP-FOR-2011-02-12 (Forecasting)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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