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Seasonality, Cointegration, and Forecasting UK Residential Energy Demand

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  • Clements, Michael P
  • Madlener, Reinhard

Abstract

Much of the short-run movement in energy demand in the United Kingdom is seasonal, and the contribution of long- run factors to short-run forecasts is slight. Nevertheless, using a variety of techniques, including a recently developed estimation procedure that is applicable irrespective of the orders of integration of the data, the authors obtain a long-run income elasticity of demand of about one third, and they are unable to reject a zero price elasticity. An econometric model is shown to provide superior short-run forecasts to well-known seasonal time series models ex post, but is inferior to Box-Jenkins SARMA models when the determinants themselves have to be forecast. However, the relatively short data sample and small number of forecasts suggest caution in generalizing these results. Copyright 1999 by Scottish Economic Society.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Scottish Economic Society in its journal Scottish Journal of Political Economy.

Volume (Year): 46 (1999)
Issue (Month): 2 (May)
Pages: 185-206

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Handle: RePEc:bla:scotjp:v:46:y:1999:i:2:p:185-206

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Cited by:
  1. Noel Alter & Shabib Haider Syed, 2011. "An Empirical Analysis of Electricity Demand in Pakistan," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 1(4), pages 116-139.
  2. Hondroyiannis, George, 2004. "Estimating residential demand for electricity in Greece," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 319-334, May.
  3. Zachariadis, Theodoros, 2010. "Forecast of electricity consumption in Cyprus up to the year 2030: The potential impact of climate change," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 744-750, February.
  4. Bhattacharyya, Subhes C. & Timilsina, Govinda R., 2010. "Modelling energy demand of developing countries: Are the specific features adequately captured?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 1979-1990, April.
  5. Lester C. Hunt & Guy Judge & Yashushi Ninomiya, 2000. "Modelling Technical Progress: An Application of the Stochastic Trend Model to UK Energy Demand," Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), School of Economics Discussion Papers (SEEDS) 99, Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), School of Economics, University of Surrey.
  6. Hunt, Lester C. & Judge, Guy & Ninomiya, Yasushi, 2003. "Underlying trends and seasonality in UK energy demand: a sectoral analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 93-118, January.
  7. Jamil, Faisal & Ahmad, Eatzaz, 2011. "Income and price elasticities of electricity demand: Aggregate and sector-wise analyses," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(9), pages 5519-5527, September.
  8. Zachariadis, Theodoros & Pashourtidou, Nicoletta, 2007. "An empirical analysis of electricity consumption in Cyprus," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 183-198, March.
  9. Herrerias, M.J., 2013. "Seasonal anomalies in electricity intensity across Chinese regions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 1548-1557.
  10. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Smyth, Russell & Prasad, Arti, 2007. "Electricity consumption in G7 countries: A panel cointegration analysis of residential demand elasticities," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(9), pages 4485-4494, September.

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