Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Modelling energy demand of developing countries: Are the specific features adequately captured?

Contents:

Author Info

  • Bhattacharyya, Subhes C.
  • Timilsina, Govinda R.

Abstract

This paper critically reviews existing energy demand forecasting methodologies highlighting the methodological diversities and developments over the past four decades in order to investigate whether the existing energy demand models are appropriate for capturing the specific features of developing countries. The study finds that two types of approaches, econometric and end-use accounting, are commonly used in the existing energy demand models. Although energy demand models have greatly evolved since the early seventies, key issues such as the poor-rich and urban-rural divides, traditional energy resources and differentiation between commercial and non-commercial energy commodities are often poorly reflected in these models. While the end-use energy accounting models with detailed sectoral representations produce more realistic projections as compared to the econometric models, they still suffer from huge data deficiencies especially in developing countries. Development and maintenance of more detailed energy databases, further development of models to better reflect developing country context and institutionalizing the modelling capacity in developing countries are the key requirements for energy demand modelling to deliver richer and more reliable input to policy formulation in developing countries.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6V2W-4Y0C2KB-7/2/d47a22992e3efdebf644ae58bcb69036
Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Energy Policy.

Volume (Year): 38 (2010)
Issue (Month): 4 (April)
Pages: 1979-1990

as in new window
Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:38:y:2010:i:4:p:1979-1990

Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol

Related research

Keywords: Demand forecasting Econometric method End-use method;

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Kulshreshtha, Mudit & Parikh, Jyoti K., 2000. "Modeling demand for coal in India: vector autoregressive models with cointegrated variables," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 149-168.
  2. Siddayao, C. M. & Khaled, M. & Ranada, J. G. & Saicheua, S., 1987. "Estimates of energy and non-energy elasticities in selected Asian manufacturing sectors : Policy implications," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 115-128, April.
  3. Hondroyiannis, George, 2004. "Estimating residential demand for electricity in Greece," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 319-334, May.
  4. Lin Chan, Hing & Kam Lee, Shu, 1997. "Modelling and forecasting the demand for coal in China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 271-287, July.
  5. Clements, Michael P & Madlener, Reinhard, 1999. "Seasonality, Cointegration, and Forecasting UK Residential Energy Demand," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 46(2), pages 185-206, May.
  6. Urban, F. & Benders, R.M.J. & Moll, H.C., 2007. "Modelling energy systems for developing countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(6), pages 3473-3482, June.
  7. Assimakopoulos, V., 1992. "Residential energy demand modelling in developing regions : The use of multivariate statistical techniques," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 57-63, January.
  8. Fatih Birol, 2007. "Energy Economics: A Place for Energy Poverty in the Agenda?," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 1-6.
  9. Urga, Giovanni & Walters, Chris, 2003. "Dynamic translog and linear logit models: a factor demand analysis of interfuel substitution in US industrial energy demand," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 1-21, January.
  10. Jonathan E. Hughes & Christopher R. Knittel & Daniel Sperling, 2006. "Evidence of a Shift in the Short-Run Price Elasticity of Gasoline Demand," NBER Working Papers 12530, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Pokharel, Shaligram, 2007. "An econometric analysis of energy consumption in Nepal," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 350-361, January.
  12. Ghanadan, Rebecca & Koomey, Jonathan G., 2005. "Using energy scenarios to explore alternative energy pathways in California," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(9), pages 1117-1142, June.
  13. Adeyemi, Olutomi I. & Hunt, Lester C., 2007. "Modelling OECD industrial energy demand: Asymmetric price responses and energy-saving technical change," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 693-709, July.
  14. Tanatvanit, Somporn & Limmeechokchai, Bundit & Chungpaibulpatana, Supachart, 2003. "Sustainable energy development strategies: implications of energy demand management and renewable energy in Thailand," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 7(5), pages 367-395, October.
  15. Mahmud, Fakhre & Chishti, Salim, 1990. "The demand for energy in the large-scale manufacturing sector of Pakistan," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 251-254, October.
  16. Taoufik Bouachera & Mohammad Mazraati, 2007. "Fuel demand and car ownership modelling in India," OPEC Energy Review, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, vol. 31(1), pages 27-51, 03.
  17. Pachauri, Shonali, 2004. "An analysis of cross-sectional variations in total household energy requirements in India using micro survey data," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(15), pages 1723-1735, October.
  18. Nasr, G. E. & Badr, E. A. & Dibeh, G., 2000. "Econometric modeling of electricity consumption in post-war Lebanon," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(6), pages 627-640, December.
  19. Grover, R.B. & Chandra, Subhash, 2006. "Scenario for growth of electricity in India," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(17), pages 2834-2847, November.
  20. Harvey, Andrew, 1997. "Trends, Cycles and Autoregressions," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(440), pages 192-201, January.
  21. Blakemore, F. B. & Davies, C. & Isaac, J. G., 1994. "UK energy market: An analysis of energy demands. Part I: A disaggregated sectorial approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 48(3), pages 261-277.
  22. Rapanos, Vassilis T. & Polemis, Michael L., 2006. "The structure of residential energy demand in Greece," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(17), pages 3137-3143, November.
  23. Jones, Clifton T, 1994. "Accounting for technical progress in aggregate energy demand," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 245-252, October.
  24. Samimi, Rodney, 1995. "Road transport energy demand in Australia: A cointegration approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 329-339, October.
  25. Suthep Buranakunaporn & Edward Oczkowski, 2007. "A dynamic econometric model of Thailand manufacturing energy demand," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(17), pages 2261-2267.
  26. Al-Faris, Abdul Razak F., 2002. "The demand for electricity in the GCC countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 117-124, January.
  27. Bhattacharyya, Subhes C. & Blake, Andon, 2009. "Domestic demand for petroleum products in MENA countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1552-1560, April.
  28. Iniyan, S. & Suganthi, L. & Samuel, Anand A., 2006. "Energy models for commercial energy prediction and substitution of renewable energy sources," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(17), pages 2640-2653, November.
  29. Paul Crompton & Yanrui Wu, 2004. "Energy Consumption in China: Past Trends and Future Directions," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 04-22, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
  30. Dahl, Carol & Sterner, Thomas, 1991. "Analysing gasoline demand elasticities: a survey," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 203-210, July.
  31. Eltony, M. N. & Al-Mutairi, N. H., 1995. "Demand for gasoline in Kuwait : An empirical analysis using cointegration techniques," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 249-253, July.
  32. Massimo Filippini & Shonali Pachauri, 2002. "Elasticities of Electricity Demand in Urban Indian Households," CEPE Working paper series 02-16, CEPE Center for Energy Policy and Economics, ETH Zurich.
  33. Polemis, Michael L., 2006. "Empirical assessment of the determinants of road energy demand in Greece," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 385-403, May.
  34. Bentzen, Jan, 1994. "An empirical analysis of gasoline demand in Denmark using cointegration techniques," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 139-143, April.
  35. Espey, Molly, 1998. "Gasoline demand revisited: an international meta-analysis of elasticities," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 273-295, June.
  36. Halicioglu, Ferda, 2007. "Residential electricity demand dynamics in Turkey," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 199-210, March.
  37. Engsted, T & Bentzen, J, 1997. "Dynamic Modelling of Energy Demand : A Guided Tour Through the Jungle of Unit Roots and Cointegration," Papers 97-6, Aarhus School of Business - Department of Economics.
  38. Bose, Ranjan Kumar & Shukla, Megha, 1999. "Elasticities of electricity demand in India," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 137-146, March.
  39. Chongwoo Choe & Imad A Moosa, 1996. "Demand for Oil by Developing Countries," Working Papers 1996.09, School of Economics, La Trobe University.
  40. Holtedahl, Pernille & Joutz, Frederick L., 2004. "Residential electricity demand in Taiwan," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 201-224, March.
  41. Hainoun, A. & Seif-Eldin, M.K. & Almoustafa, S., 2006. "Analysis of the Syrian long-term energy and electricity demand projection using the end-use methodology," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(14), pages 1958-1970, September.
  42. Sharma, D. Parameswara & Chandramohanan Nair, P. S. & Balasubramanian, R., 2002. "Demand for commercial energy in the state of Kerala, India: an econometric analysis with medium-range projections," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 30(9), pages 781-791, July.
  43. James M. Griffin, 1993. "Methodological Advances in Energy Modelling: 1970-1990," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 111-124.
  44. Kim, Bong Chin & Labys, Walter C., 1988. "Application of the translog model of energy substitution to developing countries : The case of Korea," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 313-323, October.
  45. Ramanathan, R., 1999. "Short- and long-run elasticities of gasoline demand in India: An empirical analysis using cointegration techniques," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 321-330, August.
  46. Berndt, Ernst R & Wood, David O, 1975. "Technology, Prices, and the Derived Demand for Energy," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 57(3), pages 259-68, August.
  47. Pandey, Rahul, 2002. "Energy policy modelling: agenda for developing countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 97-106, January.
  48. Haas, Reinhard & Schipper, Lee, 1998. "Residential energy demand in OECD-countries and the role of irreversible efficiency improvements," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 421-442, September.
  49. Ramesh Bhatia, 1987. "Energy Demand Analysis in Developing Countries: A Review," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I), pages 1-34.
  50. Lapillonne, B. & Chateau, B., 1981. "The medee models for long term energy demand forecasting," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 53-58.
  51. Hirst, Eric & Goeltz, Richard & Carney, Janet, 1982. "Residential energy use : Analysis of disaggregate data," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 74-82, April.
  52. Dhakal, Shobhakar, 2003. "Implications of transportation policies on energy and environment in Kathmandu Valley, Nepal," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 31(14), pages 1493-1507, November.
  53. Rijal, Kamal & Bansal, N. K. & Grover, P. D., 1990. "Rural household energy demand modelling : A case study of Nepal," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 279-288, October.
  54. Suganthi, L. & Williams, A., 2000. "Renewable energy in India -- a modelling study for 2020-2021," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 28(15), pages 1095-1109, December.
  55. Beenstock, Michael & Goldin, Ephraim & Nabot, Dan, 1999. "The demand for electricity in Israel," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 168-183, April.
  56. Kulshreshtha, Mudit & Nag, Barnali & Kulshrestha, Mukul, 2001. "A multivariate cointegrating vector auto regressive model of freight transport demand: evidence from Indian railways," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 29-45, January.
  57. Uri, Noel D., 1979. "Energy substitution in the UK, 1948-64," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(4), pages 241-244, October.
  58. Tuan, Nguyen Anh & Lefevre, Thierry, 1996. "Analysis of household energy demand in Vietnam," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 24(12), pages 1089-1099, December.
  59. Uri, Noel D., 1979. "Energy demand and interfuel substitution in India," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 181-190, April.
  60. Chateau, B. & Lapillonne, B., 1978. "Long-term energy demand forecasting A new approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 140-157, June.
  61. Ziramba, Emmanuel, 2008. "The demand for residential electricity in South Africa," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(9), pages 3460-3466, September.
  62. Ghosh, Sajal, 2006. "Future demand of petroleum products in India," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(15), pages 2032-2037, October.
  63. Saicheua, Supavud, 1987. "Input substitution in Thailand's manufacturing sector : Implications for energy policy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 55-63, January.
  64. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Smyth, Russell, 2005. "The residential demand for electricity in Australia: an application of the bounds testing approach to cointegration," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 467-474, March.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Keshavarzian, Maryam & Kamali Anaraki, Sara & Zamani, Mehrzad & Erfanifard, Ali, 2012. "Projections of oil demand in road transportation sector on the basis of vehicle ownership projections, worldwide: 1972–2020," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 1979-1985.
  2. Malla, Sunil, 2013. "Household energy consumption patterns and its environmental implications: Assessment of energy access and poverty in Nepal," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 990-1002.
  3. van Ruijven, Bas J. & van Vuuren, Detlef P. & de Vries, Bert J.M. & Isaac, Morna & van der Sluijs, Jeroen P. & Lucas, Paul L. & Balachandra, P., 2011. "Model projections for household energy use in India," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(12), pages 7747-7761.
  4. Suganthi, L. & Samuel, Anand A., 2012. "Energy models for demand forecasting—A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 1223-1240.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:38:y:2010:i:4:p:1979-1990. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.