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Fuel demand and car ownership modelling in India

Author

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  • Taoufik Bouachera
  • Mohammad Mazraati

Abstract

Motorisation in Asia is soaring with rapid growth in incomes non‐lin‐early. Even though car ownership per 1,000 population is still low in countries like China, India or Indonesia, escalating number of cars is affected by GDP growth among other infrastructural factors in a non‐linear manner. This quick growth in car ownership may represent a significant implication on road transport fuel demand. This paper forecasts the demand for road transport fuel in India. For this purpose, econometric models, based on time series data, are constructed as for a major factor affecting fuel demand in road transportation i.e. car ownership. Firstly the econometric car ownership model was attempted in this study, for projecting future car stock in India based on cross section time series technique. The car stock is modelled by using three functional forms, which are the logistic, quasi‐logistic and Gompertz curves. However, to take into consideration countries with different income levels in that part of the world, these models were estimated by using pooled data of seven Asian countries (Japan, China, South Korea, Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia and India). Then, a set of fuel consumption scenarios were developed in order to make forecast until 2030. These scenarios were generated by taking into consideration car stock, fuel efficiency and the average distance travelled in India.

Suggested Citation

  • Taoufik Bouachera & Mohammad Mazraati, 2007. "Fuel demand and car ownership modelling in India," OPEC Energy Review, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, vol. 31(1), pages 27-51, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:opecrv:v:31:y:2007:i:1:p:27-51
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-0076.2007.00175.x
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    Cited by:

    1. Qian, Lixian & Soopramanien, Didier, 2014. "Using diffusion models to forecast market size in emerging markets with applications to the Chinese car market," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 67(6), pages 1226-1232.
    2. Gujba, H. & Mulugetta, Y. & Azapagic, A., 2013. "Passenger transport in Nigeria: Environmental and economic analysis with policy recommendations," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 353-361.
    3. Tatiana Mitrova & Vyacheslav Kulagin & Dmitry Grushevenko & Ekaterina Grushevenko, 2015. "Technological Innovation as a Factor of Demand for Energy Sources in Automotive Industry," Foresight and STI Governance (Foresight-Russia till No. 3/2015), National Research University Higher School of Economics, vol. 9(4), pages 18-31.
    4. Ekaterina Grushevenko, 2015. "Complex method of petroleum products demand forecasting considering economic, demographic and technological factors," Economics and Business Letters, Oviedo University Press, vol. 4(3), pages 98-107.
    5. Salil Arora & Anant Vyas & Larry R. Johnson, 2011. "Projections of highway vehicle population, energy demand, and CO2 emissions in India to 2040," Natural Resources Forum, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(1), pages 49-62, February.
    6. Bhattacharyya, Subhes C. & Timilsina, Govinda R., 2010. "Modelling energy demand of developing countries: Are the specific features adequately captured?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 1979-1990, April.
    7. Javier Aliaga Lordemann & Alejandra Terán Orsini, 2020. "Vehicle fleets path and non-linear ownership elasticity for Bolivia, 2000-2035," Development Research Working Paper Series 04/2020, Institute for Advanced Development Studies.
    8. Homolka, Lubor & Ngo, Vu Minh & Pavelková, Drahomíra & Le, Bach Tuan & Dehning, Bruce, 2020. "Short- and medium-term car registration forecasting based on selected macro and socio-economic indicators in European countries," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    9. Keshavarzian, Maryam & Kamali Anaraki, Sara & Zamani, Mehrzad & Erfanifard, Ali, 2012. "Projections of oil demand in road transportation sector on the basis of vehicle ownership projections, worldwide: 1972–2020," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 1979-1985.
    10. Krishna Saw & Ashu Kedia, 2023. "Estimating the adoption of electric vehicles: A case study of four Indian states," Competition and Regulation in Network Industries, , vol. 24(2-3), pages 120-135, June.

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