IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/col/000151/012884.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Demanda de gasolina en la zona metropolitana del Valle de México: análisis empírico de la reducción del subsidio

Author

Listed:
  • Jimy Ferrer Carbonell
  • Roberto Escalante Semerena

Abstract

Este artículo analiza la demanda de gasolina en la Zona Metropolitana del Valle de México (ZMVM). Se modela el consumo de gasolina como una función del ingreso y el precio relativo. Utilizando el enfoque de cointegración se encuentra una relación estable y de largo plazo entre las variables, que indica que la respuesta de la demanda es mayor ante cambios en el ingreso que frente a cambios en el precio, por lo que las políticas públicas basadas solo en precios no son suficientes para disminuir el consumo de gasolina en esta zona metropolitana, sino que estas deben complementarse con medidas de regulación.

Suggested Citation

  • Jimy Ferrer Carbonell & Roberto Escalante Semerena, 2014. "Demanda de gasolina en la zona metropolitana del Valle de México: análisis empírico de la reducción del subsidio," Revista de Economía del Rosario, Universidad del Rosario, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:col:000151:012884
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://revistas.urosario.edu.co/index.php/economia/article/view/3339/2573
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Espey, Molly, 1998. "Gasoline demand revisited: an international meta-analysis of elasticities," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 273-295, June.
    2. Eskeland, Gunnar S. & Feyzioglu, Tarhan N., 1997. "Is demand for polluting goods manageable? An econometric study of car ownership and use in Mexico," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(2), pages 423-445, August.
    3. Nagy Eltony, M., 1996. "Demand for gasoline in the GCC: an application of pooling and testing procedures," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 203-209, July.
    4. Galindo, Luis Miguel, 2005. "Short- and long-run demand for energy in Mexico: a cointegration approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(9), pages 1179-1185, June.
    5. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
    6. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    7. Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 2002. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 25-44, January.
    8. Mas-Colell, Andreu & Whinston, Michael D. & Green, Jerry R., 1995. "Microeconomic Theory," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195102680, Decembrie.
    9. Birol, F. & Guerer, N., 1993. "Modelling the transport sector fuel demand for developng economies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 21(12), pages 1163-1172, December.
    10. Polemis, Michael L., 2006. "Empirical assessment of the determinants of road energy demand in Greece," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 385-403, May.
    11. Jonathan E. Hughes & Christopher R. Knittel & Daniel Sperling, 2008. "Evidence of a Shift in the Short-Run Price Elasticity of Gasoline Demand," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 29(1), pages 113-134.
    12. Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P., 1974. "Spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 111-120, July.
    13. Waheed, Muhammad & Alam, Tasneem & Ghauri, Saghir Pervaiz, 2006. "Structural breaks and unit root: evidence from Pakistani macroeconomic time series," MPRA Paper 1797, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Jonathan E. Hughes & Christopher R. Knittel & Daniel Sperling, 2008. "Evidence of a Shift in the Short-Run Price Elasticity of Gasoline Demand," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 29(1), pages 113-134.
    15. Akinboade, Oludele A. & Ziramba, Emmanuel & Kumo, Wolassa L., 2008. "The demand for gasoline in South Africa: An empirical analysis using co-integration techniques," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 3222-3229, November.
    16. Deaton,Angus & Muellbauer,John, 1980. "Economics and Consumer Behavior," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521296762.
    17. Arturo Vásquez, 2005. "La Demanda Agregada de Combustibles Líquidos en el Perú," Working Papers 12, Osinergmin, Gerencia de Políticas y Análisis Económico.
    18. Ramanathan, R., 1999. "Short- and long-run elasticities of gasoline demand in India: An empirical analysis using cointegration techniques," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 321-330, August.
    19. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    20. Storchmann, Karl, 2005. "Long-Run Gasoline demand for passenger cars: the role of income distribution," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 25-58, January.
    21. Eltony, M. N. & Al-Mutairi, N. H., 1995. "Demand for gasoline in Kuwait : An empirical analysis using cointegration techniques," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 249-253, July.
    22. Perron, Pierre, 1997. "Further evidence on breaking trend functions in macroeconomic variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 355-385, October.
    23. Bentzen, Jan, 1994. "An empirical analysis of gasoline demand in Denmark using cointegration techniques," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 139-143, April.
    24. Baltagi, Badi H. & Griffin, James M., 1983. "Gasoline demand in the OECD : An application of pooling and testing procedures," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 117-137, July.
    25. Sipes, Kristin N. & Mendelsohn, Robert, 2001. "The effectiveness of gasoline taxation to manage air pollution," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 299-309, February.
    26. Kelvin J. Lancaster, 1966. "A New Approach to Consumer Theory," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 74, pages 132-132.
    27. Hendry, David F., 1995. "Dynamic Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198283164, Decembrie.
    28. Juan Manuel Julio, 2005. "Implementacion, Uso e Interpretación del FAN CHART," Borradores de Economia 2815, Banco de la Republica.
    29. Dahl, Carol & Sterner, Thomas, 1991. "Analysing gasoline demand elasticities: a survey," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 203-210, July.
    30. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-438, July.
    31. Kayser, Hilke A., 2000. "Gasoline demand and car choice: estimating gasoline demand using household information," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 331-348, June.
    32. Archibald, Robert & Gillingham, Robert, 1980. "An Analysis of the Short-Run Consumer Demand for Gasoline Using Household Survey Data," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 62(4), pages 622-628, November.
    33. Alves, Denisard C. O. & De Losso da Silveira Bueno, Rodrigo, 2003. "Short-run, long-run and cross elasticities of gasoline demand in Brazil," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 191-199, March.
    34. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    35. Belhaj, Mohammed, 2002. "Vehicle and fuel demand in Morocco," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 30(13), pages 1163-1171, October.
    36. Storchmann, Karl, 2005. "Erratum to "Long-run gasoline demand for passenger cars: The role of income distribution" [Energy Economics, 27 (1), 25-58]," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 687-687, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Scott, K. Rebecca, 2011. "Demand and Price Volatility: Rational Habits in International Gasoline Demand," Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley, Working Paper Series qt2q87432b, Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley.
    2. Scott, K. Rebecca, 2015. "Demand and price uncertainty: Rational habits in international gasoline demand," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 40-49.
    3. Kakali Kanjilal & Sajal Ghosh, 2018. "Revisiting income and price elasticity of gasoline demand in India: new evidence from cointegration tests," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 55(4), pages 1869-1888, December.
    4. Havranek, Tomas & Irsova, Zuzana & Janda, Karel, 2012. "Demand for gasoline is more price-inelastic than commonly thought," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 201-207.
    5. Jeyhun I. Mikayilov & Shahriyar Mukhtarov & Hasan Dinçer & Serhat Yüksel & Rıdvan Aydın, 2020. "Elasticity Analysis of Fossil Energy Sources for Sustainable Economies: A Case of Gasoline Consumption in Turkey," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-15, February.
    6. Sene, Seydina Ousmane, 2012. "Estimating the demand for gasoline in developing countries: Senegal," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 189-194.
    7. Emmanuel Flavian Sapnken & Jean Gaston Tamba & Salome Njakomo Essiane & Francis Djanna Koffi & Donatien Njomo, 2018. "Modeling and Forecasting Gasoline Consumption in Cameroon using Linear Regression Models," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 8(2), pages 111-120.
    8. Hasanov, Mübariz, 2015. "The demand for transport fuels in Turkey," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 125-134.
    9. Burke, Paul J. & Nishitateno, Shuhei, 2013. "Gasoline prices, gasoline consumption, and new-vehicle fuel economy: Evidence for a large sample of countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 363-370.
    10. Setyani Dwi Lestari & Amir Indrabudiman & Wuri Septi Handayani & Teguh Sugiarto, 2019. "Estimation with Macroeconomic Variables in Long-Term Elasticity of Gasoline Consumption," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 9(1), pages 326-329.
    11. Polemis, Michael L., 2006. "Empirical assessment of the determinants of road energy demand in Greece," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 385-403, May.
    12. Galindo, Luis Miguel & Samaniego, Joseluis & Ferrer, Jimy & Alatorre, José Eduardo & Reyes, Orlando, 2016. "Cambio climático, políticas públicas y demanda de energía y gasolinas en América Latina: un meta-análisis," Documentos de Proyectos 40841, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    13. Liddle, Brantley, 2009. "Long-Run Relationship among Transport Demand, Income, and Gasoline Price for the US," MPRA Paper 52080, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Rosa M. González-Marrero & Rosa M. Lorenzo-Alegría & Gustavo A. Marrero, 2011. "Gasoline and Diesel Consumption for Road Transport in Spain: a Dynamic Panel Data Approach," Economic Reports 04-2011, FEDEA.
    15. Rodrigues, Luciano & Bacchi, Mirian Rumenos Piedade, 2017. "Analyzing light fuel demand elasticities in Brazil using cointegration techniques," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 322-331.
    16. Raghoo, Pravesh & Surroop, Dinesh, 2020. "Price and income elasticities of oil demand in Mauritius: An empirical analysis using cointegration method," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    17. Bhaskara Rao, B. & Rao, Gyaneshwar, 2009. "Cointegration and the demand for gasoline," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(10), pages 3978-3983, October.
    18. Sa'ad, Suleiman, 2009. "An empirical analysis of petroleum demand for Indonesia: An application of the cointegration approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4391-4396, November.
    19. Giuliodori, David & Rodriguez, Alejandro, 2015. "Analysis of the stainless steel market in the EU, China and US using co-integration and VECM," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 12-24.
    20. Akinboade, Oludele A. & Ziramba, Emmanuel & Kumo, Wolassa L., 2008. "The demand for gasoline in South Africa: An empirical analysis using co-integration techniques," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 3222-3229, November.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    elasticidad demanda de gasolina; subsidios; política pública; cointegración;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • R41 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - Transportation: Demand, Supply, and Congestion; Travel Time; Safety and Accidents; Transportation Noise
    • H23 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Externalities; Redistributive Effects; Environmental Taxes and Subsidies
    • Q48 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Government Policy
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:col:000151:012884. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Facultad de Economía (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ferosco.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.