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Long-Run Relationship among Transport Demand, Income, and Gasoline Price for the US

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  • Liddle, Brantley

Abstract

Energy used in transport is a particularly important focus for environment-development studies because it is increasing in both developed and developing countries and is largely carbon-intensive. This paper examines whether a systemic, mutually causal, cointegrated relationship exists among mobility demand, gasoline price, income, and vehicle ownership using US data from 1946 to 2006. We find that those variables co-evolve in a transport system; and thus, they cannot be easily disentangled in the short-run. However, estimating a long-run relationship for motor fuel use per capita was difficult because of the efficacy of the CAFE standards to influence fleet fuel economy. The analysis shows that the fuel standards program was effective in improving the fuel economy of the US vehicle fleet and in temporarily lessening the impact on fuel use of increased mobility demand. Among the policy implications are a role for efficiency standards, a limited impact for fuel tax, and the necessity of using a number of levers simultaneously to influence transport systems.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 52080.

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Date of creation: 2009
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:52080

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Keywords: Transport demand; Energy consumption and development; Cointegration; Granger-causality; CAFE program;

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References

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  1. David I. Stern, 1998. "A multivariate cointegration analysis of the role of energy in the U.S. macroeconomy," Working Papers in Ecological Economics 9803, Australian National University, Centre for Resource and Environmental Studies, Ecological Economics Program.
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  5. Liddle, Brantley, 2006. "How Linked are Energy and GDP: Reconsidering Energy-GDP Cointegration and Causality for Disaggregated OECD Country Data," MPRA Paper 52334, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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Cited by:
  1. Kyoung-Min Lim & Myunghwan Kim & Chang Seob Kim & Seung-Hoon Yoo, 2012. "Short-Run and Long-Run Elasticities of Diesel Demand in Korea," Energies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 5(12), pages 5055-5064, November.
  2. Rentziou, Aikaterini & Gkritza, Konstantina & Souleyrette, Reginald R., 2012. "VMT, energy consumption, and GHG emissions forecasting for passenger transportation," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 487-500.
  3. Liddle, Brantley, 2012. "The Systemic, Long-run Relation among Gasoline Demand, Gasoline Price, Income, and Vehicle Ownership in OECD Countries: Evidence from Panel Cointegration and Causality Modeling," MPRA Paper 52081, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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