We investigate the prediction of Italian industrial production. We first specify a model based on electricity consumption; we show that the cubic trend in such a model mostly captures the evolution over time of the electricity coefficient, which can be well approximated by a smooth transition model a la Terasvirta, with no gains in predictive power, though. We also analyze the performance of models based on data of different business surveys.
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Paper provided by Banca Italia - Servizio di Studi in its series Papers with number
342.
Find related papers by JEL classification: D24 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Production; Capital and Total Factor Productivity; Capacity L11 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Production, Pricing, and Market Structure; Size Distribution of Firms L9 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities
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