Energy Consumption, Survey Data and the Prediction of Industrial Production in Italy
AbstractWe investigate the prediction of Italian industrial production. We first specify a model based on electricity consumption; we show that the cubic trend in such a model mostly captures the evolution over time of the electricity coefficient, which can be well approximated by a smooth transition model a la Terasvirta, with no gains in predictive power, though. We also analyze the performance of models based on data of different business surveys.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Banca Italia - Servizio di Studi in its series Papers with number 342.
Length: 46 pages
Date of creation: 1998
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Banca d'Italia-Servizio Studi-Divisione Biblioteca e Pubblicazioni - Via N azionale, 91 -00184 Rome, Italy.
Web page: http://www.bancaditalia.it/
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ITALY ; INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION ; ENERGY;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- D24 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Production; Cost; Capital; Capital, Total Factor, and Multifactor Productivity; Capacity
- L11 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Production, Pricing, and Market Structure; Size Distribution of Firms
- L9 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities
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- Francesca Monti, 2008. "Forecast with judgment and models," Working Paper Research 153, National Bank of Belgium.
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