Forecasting European GDP Using Self-Exciting Threshold Autoregressive Models. A Warning
AbstractA two-regime self-exciting threshold autoregressive process is estimated for quarterly aggregate GDP of the fifteen countries that compose the European Union, and the forecasts from this nonlinear model are compared, by means of a Monte Carlo simulation, with those from a simple autoregressive model, whose lag length is chosen to minimize Akaike's AIC criterion. The results are very negative for the SETAR model when the Monte Carlo procedure is used to generate multi-step forecasts. When the "naive" procedure of generating forecasts is used, the results are surprisingly better for the SETAR model in long-term predictions. Due to the characteristics of the residuals, a bootstrapping method of forecasting was also used, yielding even poorer results for the nonlinear model.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Institute for Advanced Studies in its series Economics Series with number 79.
Length: 15 pages
Date of creation: Mar 2000
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Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
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