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Directed graphs, information structure and forecast combinations: an empirical examination of US unemployment rates

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  • Zijun Wang

    (Private Enterprise Research Center, Texas A&M University, College Station, Texas, USA)

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    Abstract

    Previous studies show that it is not always optimal to combine forecasts of alternative models. In this paper, we propose to use the recent advances in modeling directed acyclic graphs to study the issue of forecast combinations. In forecasting US unemployment rates, we demonstrate that the proposed procedure can be a useful tool for comparing information in rival forecasts and guiding the combination of individual forecasts. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd

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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1002/for.1128
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal Journal of Forecasting.

    Volume (Year): 29 (2010)
    Issue (Month): 4 ()
    Pages: 353-366

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    Handle: RePEc:jof:jforec:v:29:y:2010:i:4:p:353-366

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    Web page: http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/cgi-bin/jhome/2966

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