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Automatic Inference Of The Contemporaneous Causal Order Of A System Of Equations

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Author Info

  • Hoover, Kevin D.

Abstract

When Stephen Perez and I first began our Monte Carlo studies of the efficacy of general-to-specific search methodologies in 1995, we were keenly aware of our limited ability to capture the tacit knowledge of the skilled time-series econometrician operating in the London School of Economics (LSE) tradition (Hoover and Perez, 1999a, 1999b). Econometrics, we believed, was an art, and our algorithm was not intended to replace the artist. David Hendry and Hans-Martin Krolzig s subsequent development of PcGets did not, in fact, eliminate the art of econometrics. Power tools did not eliminate the art of the cabinetmaker but changed where his value added lay and importantly made new things possible. PcGets is likewise a new, powerful tool, useful in the hands of a skilled craftsman.I thank Peter Phillips, Selva Demiralp, Stephen Perez, and an anonymous referee for helpful comments on an earlier draft.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Cambridge University Press in its journal Econometric Theory.

Volume (Year): 21 (2005)
Issue (Month): 01 (February)
Pages: 69-77

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Handle: RePEc:cup:etheor:v:21:y:2005:i:01:p:69-77_05

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Cited by:
  1. Pu Chen & Chih-Ying Hsiao, 2010. "Causal Inference for Structural Equations: With an Application to Wage-Price Spiral," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 36(1), pages 17-36, June.
  2. Chihying, Hsiao & Chen, Pu, 2007. "Learning Causal Relations in Multivariate Time Series Data," Economics Discussion Papers 2007-15, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  3. Chen, Pu & Hsiao, Chih-Ying, 2010. "Looking behind Granger causality," MPRA Paper 24859, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Kim, J.W. & Leatham, D.J. & Bessler, D.A., 2007. "REITs' dynamics under structural change with unknown break points," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 37-58, March.
  5. Chen Pu & Hsiao Chihying, 2005. "What Happens to Japan if China Catches Cold? - A causal analysis of the Chinese growth and the Japanese growth," Econometrics 0510005, EconWPA.
  6. Park, Haesun & Mjelde, James W. & Bessler, David A., 2008. "Price interactions and discovery among natural gas spot markets in North America," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 290-302, January.
  7. Palma, Marco A. & Ribera, Luis A. & Bessler, David A. & Paggi, Mechel S. & Knutson, Ronald D., 2009. "Potential Impacts of Food Borne Ill Incidence on Market Movements and Prices of Fresh Produce in the US," 2009 Annual Meeting, January 31-February 3, 2009, Atlanta, Georgia 46745, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
  8. Park, Haesun & Mjelde, James W. & Bessler, David A., 2006. "Price dynamics among U.S. electricity spot markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 81-101, January.
  9. Bessler, David A. & Leatham, David J. & Yang, Juan, 2005. "In Search of the "Bank Lending Channel": Causality Analysis for the Transmission Mechanism of U.S. Monetary Policy," 2005 Annual meeting, July 24-27, Providence, RI 19558, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
  10. Bryant, Henry L. & Bessler, David A. & Haigh, Michael S., 2006. "Disproving Causal Relationships Using Observational Data," 2006 Annual meeting, July 23-26, Long Beach, CA 21166, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
  11. Chen, Pu, 2010. "A time series causal model," MPRA Paper 24841, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  12. Mjelde, James W. & Bessler, David A., 2009. "Market integration among electricity markets and their major fuel source markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 482-491, May.
  13. Chen, Pu & Hsiao, Chih-Ying, 2008. "What happens to Japan if China catches a cold?: A causal analysis of Chinese growth and Japanese growth," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 622-638, December.
  14. Brisne J. V. C├ęspedes & Elcyon C. R. Lima & Alexis Maka, 2005. "Monetary Policy, Inflation and the Level of Economic Activity in Brasil After the Real Plan: Stylized Facts From SVAR Models," Discussion Papers 1101, Instituto de Pesquisa Econ├┤mica Aplicada - IPEA.

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