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We have just explained real convergence factors using machine learning

Author

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  • Piotr Wójcik

    (Faculty of Economic Sciences, Data Science Lab WNE UW, University of Warsaw)

  • Bartłomiej Wieczorek

    (Data Science Lab WNE UW)

Abstract

There are several competing empirical approaches to identify factors of real economic convergence. However, all of the previous studies of cross-country convergence assume a linear model specification. This article uses a novel approach and shows the application of several machine learning tools to this topic discussing their advantages over the other methods, including possibility of identifying nonlinear relationships without any a priori assumptions about its shape. The results suggest that conditional convergence observed in earlier studies could have been a result of inappropriate model specification. We find that in a correct non-linear approach, initial GDP is not (strongly) correlated with growth. In addition, the tools of interpretable machine learning allow to discover the shape of relationship between the average growth and initial GDP. Based on these tools we prove the occurrence of convergence of clubs.

Suggested Citation

  • Piotr Wójcik & Bartłomiej Wieczorek, 2020. "We have just explained real convergence factors using machine learning," Working Papers 2020-38, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
  • Handle: RePEc:war:wpaper:2020-38
    as

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    File URL: https://www.wne.uw.edu.pl/index.php/download_file/5905/
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    cross-country convergence; conditional convergence; determinants; machine learning; non-linear;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection

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