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How Important are Automatic Stabilizers in Europe? A Stochastic Simulation Assessment

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  • Barrell, R.
  • Pina, A.M.

Abstract

In this paper we formalize budgetary stabilizers as a set of simple policy rules, and assess their operation in an uncertain environment by performing stochastic simulations in a forward-looking multi-country macroeconomic model, NiGEM, comprising individual blocks for 10 Euroland economies.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by European University Institute in its series Economics Working Papers with number eco2000/2.

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Length: 41 pages
Date of creation: 2000
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:eui:euiwps:eco2000/2

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Keywords: FISCAL POLICY ; STOCHASTIC MODELS ; SIMULATION;

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References

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  1. Ray C. Fair & John B. Taylor, 1980. "Solution and Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Dynamic Nonlinear RationalExpectations Models," NBER Technical Working Papers 0005, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Barry Eichengreen & Charles Wyplosz, 1998. "The Stability Pact: more than a minor nuisance?," Economic Policy, CEPR & CES & MSH, vol. 13(26), pages 65-113, 04.
  3. Ray C. Fair & John B. Taylor, 1991. "Full Information Estimation and Stochastic Simulation of Models with Rational Expectations," NBER Technical Working Papers 0078, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Paula De Masi, 1997. "IMF Estimates of Potential Output: Theory and Practice," IMF Working Papers 97/177, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Barrell, Ray & Sefton, James, 1997. "Fiscal Policy and the Masstricht Solvency Criteria," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 65(3), pages 259-79, June.
  6. Darrel Cohen & Glenn Follette, 1999. "The automatic fiscal stabilizers: quietly doing their thing," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-64, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  7. Alberto Alesina & Tamim Bayoumi, 1996. "The Costs and Benefits of Fiscal Rules: Evidence from U.S. States," NBER Working Papers 5614, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Buti, Marco & Franco, Daniele & Ongena, Hedwig, 1998. "Fiscal Discipline and Flexibility in EMU: The Implementation of the Stability and Growth Pact," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 14(3), pages 81-97, Autumn.
  9. Claude Giorno & Pete Richardson & Deborah Roseveare & Paul van den Noord, 1995. "Estimating Potential Output, Output Gaps and Structural Budget Balances," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 152, OECD Publishing.
  10. Clements,Michael & Hendry,David, 1998. "Forecasting Economic Time Series," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521634809, December.
  11. Thomas Dalsgaard & Alain de Serres, 1999. "Estimating Prudent Budgetary Margins for 11 EU Countries: A Simulated SVAR Model Approach," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 216, OECD Publishing.
  12. Ray Barrell & Ian Hurst & Álvaro Pina, 2002. "Fiscal Targets, Automatic Stabilisers and their Effects on Output," Working Papers Department of Economics 2002/05, ISEG - School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, University of Lisbon.
  13. Brown, Bryan W & Mariano, Roberto S, 1984. "Residual-Based Procedures for Prediction and Estimation in a Nonlinear Simultaneous System," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(2), pages 321-43, March.
  14. Ray Barrell & Dirk Willem te Velde, 2002. "European Integration and Manufactures Import Demand: An Empirical Investigation of Ten European Countries," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 3(3), pages 263-293, 08.
  15. Diebalek, Leopold & Schuberth, Helene & Brandner, Peter, 1998. "Structural Budget Deficits and Sustainability of Fiscal Positions in the European Union," Working Papers 26, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Ray Barrell & Bettina Becker & Joseph P Byrne & Sylvia Gottschalk & Ian Hurst & Desirée van Welsum, 2003. "Macroeconomic Policy in Europe: Experiments with monetary responses and fiscal impulses," NIESR Discussion Papers 218, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
  2. Dury, Karen & Pina, Alvaro M., 2003. "Fiscal policy in EMU: simulating the operation of the Stability Pact," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 179-206, February.
  3. Rafael Domenech & Javier Andres, 2005. "Fiscal Rules and Macroeconomic Stability," Working Papers 0501, International Economics Institute, University of Valencia, revised Nov 2005.
  4. Breuss, Fritz & Roeger, Werner, 2005. "The SGP fiscal rule in the case of sluggish growth: Simulations with the QUEST model," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 27(7), pages 767-788, October.
  5. Jérôme Creel & Francesco Saraceno, 2008. "Automatic Stabilisation, Discretionary Policy and the Stability Pact," Sciences Po publications 2008-15, Sciences Po.
  6. Jaakko Kiander & Matti Virén, 2000. "Do automatic stabilisers take care of asymmetric shocks in the euro area?," Discussion Papers 234, Government Institute for Economic Research Finland (VATT).
  7. Dinga, Emil & Ionescu, Cornel & Padurean, Elena, 2010. "Discretionary Policy versus Non-Discretionary Policy in the Economic Adjustment Process," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 184-207, December.
  8. Maria Antoinette Silgoner & Jesús Crespo-Cuaresma & Gerhard Reitschuler, 2003. "The Fiscal Smile: The Effectiveness and Limits of Fiscal Stabilizers," IMF Working Papers 03/182, International Monetary Fund.
  9. Maria Silgoner & Jesus Crespo Cuaresma & Gerhard Reitschuler, 2004. "The fiscal smile - on the effectiveness and limits of fiscal stabilizers," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 87, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
  10. Gábor Orbán & György Szapáry, 2004. "The Stability and Growth Pact from the Perspective of the New Member States," MNB Working Papers 2004/4, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (the central bank of Hungary).
  11. Dag Kolsrud, 2008. "Stochastic Ceteris Paribus Simulations," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 31(1), pages 21-43, February.
  12. Hüseyin SEN & Ayse KAYA, 2013. "The Role of Taxes as an Automatic Stabilizer: Evidence from Turkey," Economic Analysis and Policy (EAP), Queensland University of Technology (QUT), School of Economics and Finance, vol. 43(3), pages 303-313, December.
  13. Hiebert, Paul & Pérez, Javier J. & Rostagno, Massimo, 2009. "The trade-off between public debt reduction and automatic stabilisation," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 464-472, March.

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