Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Forecasting industry-level CPI and PPI inflation: Does exchange rate pass-through matter?

Contents:

Author Info

  • Bhattacharya, Prasad S.
  • Thomakos, Dimitrios D.

Abstract

We show that incorporating the effects of exchange rate pass-through into a model can help in obtaining superior forecasts of domestic, industry-level inflation. Our analysis is based on a multivariate system of domestic inflation, import prices and exchange rates that incorporates restrictions from economic theory. These are restrictions on the transmission channels of the exchange rate pass-through to domestic prices, and are presented as testable hypotheses that lead to model reduction. We provide the results of various tests, including causality and prior restrictions, which support the underlying economic arguments and the model we use. The forecasting results for our model suggest that it has a superior performance overall, jointly producing more accurate forecasts of domestic inflation.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6V92-4PMJ9NS-1/1/ac55757a3c701dbbde8669fc2bf37e5d
Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal International Journal of Forecasting.

Volume (Year): 24 (2008)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 134-150

as in new window
Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:24:y:2008:i:1:p:134-150

Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ijforecast

Related research

Keywords:

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Pecchenino, R. A., 1992. "Commodity prices and the CPI: Cointegration, information, and signal extraction," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 7(4), pages 493-500, March.
  2. J. McCarthy, 1999. "Pass-through of exchange rates and import prices to domestic inflation in some industrialised economies," BIS Working Papers 79, Bank for International Settlements.
  3. Clements, Michael P & Smith, Jeremy, 1999. "A Monte Carlo Study of the Forecasting Performance of Empirical SETAR Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(2), pages 123-41, March-Apr.
  4. Clements,Michael & Hendry,David, 1998. "Forecasting Economic Time Series," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521634809, April.
  5. Bhattacharya, Prasad S. & Karayalcin, Cem A. & Thomakos, Dimitrios D., 2008. "Exchange rate pass-through and relative prices: An industry-level empirical investigation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(7), pages 1135-1160, November.
  6. Ki-Ho Kim, 1998. "US inflation and the dollar exchange rate: a vector error correction model," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(5), pages 613-619.
  7. Evan F. Koenig, 1998. "What's new about the new economy? : some lessons from the current expansion," Southwest Economy, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Jul, pages 7-11.
  8. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2000. "New directions for stochastic open economy models," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 117-153, February.
  9. Bergin, Paul R., 2003. "Putting the 'New Open Economy Macroeconomics' to a test," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 3-34, May.
  10. Pinelopi K. Goldberg & Michael M. Knetter, 1996. "Goods Prices and Exchange Rates: What Have We Learned?," NBER Working Papers 5862, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Maurice Obstfeld, 2002. "Exchange Rates and Adjustment: Perspectives from the New Open Economy Macroeconomics," NBER Working Papers 9118, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 1995. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(3), pages 253-63, July.
  13. José Manuel Campa & Linda S. Goldberg, 2005. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through into Import Prices," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(4), pages 679-690, November.
  14. Taylor, John B., 2000. "Low inflation, pass-through, and the pricing power of firms," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(7), pages 1389-1408, June.
  15. Obstfeld, Maurice, 2001. "International Macroeconomics: Beyond the Mundell-Fleming Model," Center for International and Development Economics Research, Working Paper Series qt6796n8s0, Center for International and Development Economics Research, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
  16. Laurence Ball, 1997. "Efficient rules for monetary policy," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series G97/3, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  17. Clements, Michael P. & Mizon, Grayham E., 1991. "Empirical analysis of macroeconomic time series : VAR and structural models," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 887-917, May.
  18. Michael B. Devereux, 1997. "Real Exchange Rates and Macroeconomics: Evidence and Theory," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 30(4), pages 773-808, November.
  19. Coakley, Jerry & Fuertes, Ana-Maria, 2001. "Border costs and real exchange rate dynamics in Europe," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 23(6), pages 669-676, August.
  20. Spanos, Aris, 1989. "Early Empirical Findings on the Consumption Function, Stylized Facts or Fiction: A Retrospective View," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 41(1), pages 150-69, January.
  21. Hansen Bruce E., 1997. "Inference in TAR Models," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 2(1), pages 1-16, April.
  22. Heravi, Saeed & Osborn, Denise R. & Birchenhall, C. R., 2004. "Linear versus neural network forecasts for European industrial production series," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 435-446.
  23. Adolfson, Malin, 2001. "Export price responses to exogenous exchange rate movements," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 91-96, April.
  24. Sven W. Arndt & J. David Richardson, 1987. "Real-Financial Linkages Among Open Economies," NBER Working Papers 2230, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  25. Linda S. Goldberg, 2004. "Industry-specific exchange rates for the United States," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue May, pages 1-16.
  26. Swanson, Norman R. & White, Halbert, 1997. "Forecasting economic time series using flexible versus fixed specification and linear versus nonlinear econometric models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 439-461, December.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Ondřej Šimpach & Jitka Langhamrová, 2013. "Forecasting Future Salaries in the Czech Republic Using Stochastic Modelling," Business Systems Research, Society for Promotion of Business Information Technology (BIT), vol. 4(2), pages 4-16.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:24:y:2008:i:1:p:134-150. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.