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Building the core of the Istat system of models for forecasting the Italian economy: MeMo-It

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Author Info

  • Fabio Bacchini

    ()
    (Istat, Econometric Studies and Economic Forecasting Division)

  • Cristina Brandimarte

    ()
    (Istat, Econometric Studies and Economic Forecasting Division)

  • Piero Crivelli

    ()
    (Istat, Econometric Studies and Economic Forecasting Division)

  • Roberta De Santis

    ()
    (Istat, Econometric Studies and Economic Forecasting Division)

  • Marco Fioramanti

    ()
    (Istat, Econometric Studies and Economic Forecasting Division)

  • Alessandro Girardi

    ()
    (Istat, Econometric Studies and Economic Forecasting Division)

  • Roberto Golinelli

    ()
    (University of Bologna, Department of Economics)

  • Cecilia Jona-Lasinio

    ()
    (Istat, Econometric Studies and Economic Forecasting Division)

  • Massimo Mancini

    ()
    (Istat, Econometric Studies and Economic Forecasting Division)

  • Carmine Pappalardo

    ()
    (Istat, Econometric Studies and Economic Forecasting Division)

  • Daniela Rossi

    ()
    (Istat, Econometric Studies and Economic Forecasting Division)

  • Marco Ventura

    ()
    (Istat, Econometric Studies and Economic Forecasting Division)

  • Claudio Vicarelli

    ()
    (Istituto Nazionale di Statistica)

Abstract

This paper provides a description of Istat’s new Macroeconometric Model MeMo-It. This is the tool used by Istat to produce bi-annual medium-term forecasts of the Italian economy since May 2012. The key model’s features are illustrated and compared with other modeling approaches used in the literature. The paper describes the theoretical foundations of the model along with the set of equations and their estimation. It also presents an assessment of model’s performance by focusing on the key multipliers

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File URL: http://www.istat.it/it/files/2013/10/17-45.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by ISTAT - Italian National Institute of Statistics - (Rome, ITALY) in its journal Rivista di Statistica Ufficiale.

Volume (Year): 15 (2013)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 17-45

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Handle: RePEc:isa:journl:v:15:y:2013:i:1:p:17-45

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Via Cesare Balbo 16, Roma
Phone: +390646732606
Email:
Web page: http://www.istat.it/en/
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Related research

Keywords: macroeconometric models; econometric forecasts; theory-first vs data-first models; model specification; fiscal policy multipliers;

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References

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Cited by:
  1. Fabio Bacchini, Maria Elena Bontempi, Cristina Brandimarte, Roberto Golinelli, Cecilia Jona-Lasinio, Carmine Pappalardo, 2013. "The Macroeconometric Models For Italy (Memo-It): Policy Evaluation And Future Challanges," RIEDS - Rivista Italiana di Economia, Demografia e Statistica - Italian Review of Economics, Demography and Statistics, SIEDS Societa' Italiana di Economia Demografia e Statistica, vol. 0(2), pages 172-179, April-Jun.

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