Economic Forecasting in a Changing World
AbstractThis article explains the basis for a theory of economic forecasting developed over the past decade by the authors. The research has resulted in numerous articles in academic journals, two monographs, Forecasting Economic Time Series, 1998, Cambridge University Press, and Forecasting Nonstationary Economic Time Series, 1999, MIT Press, and three edited volumes, Understanding Economic Forecasts, 2001, MIT Press, A Companion to Economic Forecasting, 2002, Blackwells, and the Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 2005. The aim here is to provide an accessible, non-technical, account of the main ideas. The interested reader is referred to the monographs for derivations, simulation evidence, and further empirical illustrations, which in turn reference the original articles and related material, and provide bibliographic perspective.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by De Gruyter in its journal Capitalism and Society.
Volume (Year): 3 (2008)
Issue (Month): 2 (October)
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Web page: http://www.degruyter.com
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- Skrove Falch, Nina & Nymoen, Ragnar, 2011. "The accuracy of a forecast targeting central bank," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, vol. 5(15), pages 1-36.
- Juan Carlos Martínez-Ovando & Stephen G. Walker, 2011. "Time-series Modelling, Stationarity and Bayesian Nonparametric Methods," Working Papers 2011-08, Banco de México.
- David Hendry, 2010. "Climate Change: Lessons for our Future from the Distant Past," Economics Series Working Papers 485, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
- David Mortimer Krainz, 2011. "An Evaluation of the Forecasting Performance of Three Econometric Models for the Eurozone and the USA," WIFO Working Papers 399, WIFO.
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