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Modelling Anticipated and Temporary Fiscal Policy Shocks in a Macro-econometric Model of Canada

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  • D. Peter Dungan
  • Thomas A. Wilson
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    Abstract

    Following the work of Ray Fair (1979), expectations terms in the FOCUS model are generated using predicted values from the model itself. Expectations are therefore "consistent" with the model struct ured. Government expenditure multipliers are compared for the standar d model and the CE version. Three further examples show the power of the technique as applied to the analysis of fiscal policy shocks. T he first considers a temporary versus a permanent income tax surcharg e. The second considers the possibility of an "anticipatory recession " when preannounced fiscal stimulus is combined with monetary restrai nt. The third examines the planned restructuring of the Canadian corp orate tax system.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Canadian Economics Association in its journal Canadian Journal of Economics.

    Volume (Year): 21 (1988)
    Issue (Month): 1 (February)
    Pages: 41-60

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    Handle: RePEc:cje:issued:v:21:y:1988:i:1:p:41-60

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    Postal: Canadian Economics Association Prof. Steven Ambler, Secretary-Treasurer c/o Olivier Lebert, CEA/CJE/CPP Office C.P. 35006, 1221 Fleury Est Montréal, Québec, Canada H2C 3K4
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    Cited by:
    1. Ralph C. Bryant & John Helliwell & Peter Hooper, 1989. "Domestic and cross-border consequences of U.S. macroeconomic policies," International Finance Discussion Papers 344, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Fabio Bacchini & Cristina Brandimarte & Piero Crivelli & Roberta De Santis & Marco Fioramanti & Alessandro Girardi & Roberto Golinelli & Cecilia Jona-Lasinio & Massimo Mancini & Carmine Pappalardo & D, 2013. "Building the core of the Istat system of models for forecasting the Italian economy: MeMo-It," Rivista di statistica ufficiale, ISTAT - Italian National Institute of Statistics - (Rome, ITALY), vol. 15(1), pages 17-45.

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