Issues in Adopting DSGE Models for Use in the Policy Process
AbstractOur discussion is structured by three concerns - model design, matching the data and operational requirements. The paper begins with a general discussion of the structure of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models where we investigate issues like (i) the type of restrictions being imposed by DSGE models upon system dynamics, (ii) the implication these models would have for 'location parameters', viz. growth rates, and (iii) whether these models can track the long-run movements in variables as well as matching dynamic adjustment. The paper further looks at the types of models that have been constructed in central banks for macro policy analysis. We distinguish four generations of these and detail how the emerging current generation, which are often referred to as DSGE models, differs from the previous generations. The last part of the paper is devoted to a variety of topics involving estimation and evaluation of DSGE models.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Czech National Bank, Research Department in its series Working Papers with number 2006/6.
Date of creation: Nov 2006
Date of revision:
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DSGE model; Bayesian estimation; model evaluation.;
Other versions of this item:
- Martin Fukac & Adrian Pagan, 2006. "Issues In Adopting Dsge Models For Use In The Policy Process," CAMA Working Papers 2006-10, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
- C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
- C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
- C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
- C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2007-01-23 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2007-01-23 (Central Banking)
- NEP-DGE-2007-01-23 (Dynamic General Equilibrium)
- NEP-ECM-2007-01-23 (Econometrics)
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- James M. Nason & Gregor W. Smith, 2008.
"Identifying the new Keynesian Phillips curve,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(5), pages 525-551.
- Frank Schorfheide, 2000. "Loss function-based evaluation of DSGE models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(6), pages 645-670.
- Canova, Fabio, 1994. "Statistical Inference in Calibrated Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(S), pages S123-44, Suppl. De.
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