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Revisión De Los Determinantes Macroeconómicos Del Consumo Total De Los Hogares Para El Caso Colombiano

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Juan Nicolás Hernández ()

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Abstract

A la luz de la historia comprendida en el periodo 1954-2002, que abarca episodios de creciente volatilidad en el producto para Colombia, el objetivo del trabajo es hallar empíricamente a partir de la información macroeconómica disponible y en el contexto de las diversas teorías, que variables guardan una relación de largo plazo con el consumo de los hogares y cuantificar su incidencia. Adicionalmente y partiendo de las especificaciones encontradas determinar la calidad del pronóstico, evaluando la posible contribución de su bondad a la discusión teórica. Dentro de los resultados se corrobora para el caso colombiano que la estructura demográfica no resulta tan relevante, el efecto negativo de la tasa de interés, el papel de la riqueza y el ingreso disponible, así como el rol del sistema financiero. Hacia el largo plazo los hogares con un mayor acceso al sistema financiero tenderían a ahorrar

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Paper provided by BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA in its series BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA with number 003472.

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Length: 48
Date of creation: 30 Aug 2006
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Handle: RePEc:col:000094:003472

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  2. Hall, Robert E, 1978. "Stochastic Implications of the Life Cycle-Permanent Income Hypothesis: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(6), pages 971-87, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Hendry, David F & Doornik, Jurgen A, 1997. "The Implications for Econometric Modelling of Forecast Failure," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 44(4), pages 437-61, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Francisco Gallego & Felipe Morandé & Raimundo Soto, 2001. "El Ahorro y el Consumo de Bienes Durables Frente al Ciclo Económico en Chile: ¿Consumismo, Frugalidad, Racionalidad?," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 96, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
  5. Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1, pages 19-46. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Martha Misas A. & María Teresa Ramírez G. & Luisa Fernanda Silva, 2001. "Exportaciones No Tradicionales En Colombia Y Sus Determinantes," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 002701, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Eitrheim,O. & Jansen,E.S. & Nymoen,R., 2000. "Progress from forecast failure : the Norwegian consumption function," Memorandum 32/2000, Oslo University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Alejandro López & Martha Misas & Hugo Oliveros, 1996. "Understanding Consumption in Colombia," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 003734, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Flavin, Marjorie A, 1981. "The Adjustment of Consumption to Changing Expectations about Future Income," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(5), pages 974-1009, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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