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Understanding Consumption in Colombia

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  • Alejandro López

    ()

  • Martha Misas

    ()

  • Hugo Oliveros

    ()

Abstract

One of the principal issues of Colombian macroeconomic policy in the 1990s has been the deterioration of private savings (Figure 1). The decline in the private saving rate was usually related to consumers real expenditure, which grew by an average of 3.9% in the period 1991-1993, compared to 1.9% per annum during 1950-1990. The trade reform, the acceleration of the financial liberalization process, a reassessment of permanent income due to the oil bonanza and a sterilization policy that increased real interest rates, and caused expectations of real exchange rate appreciation, were seen as the main determinants of the high consumption growth experienced in this decade (see, among others, Urrutia an López (1994-1995), Echeverry (1996)). López (1996) and López et. Al (1996) pointed out new avenues of research. Looking closer to the Colombian National Accounts and correcting data inadequacies, they suggested that the behavior of private consumption was not the main factor behind the sharp drop in private savings in the 1990s. According to these studies, the consumption of durable goods after the trade reform could not be blamed for the decline in the private saving rate. In fact, the latter was falling since 1998 and, until 1993, the trade reform did not cause a stock adjustment of durable goods. Moreover, they argued that the private consumption boom of the 1990s did not happen , leaving without foundation most of the traditional explanations of the decline in private savings. In contrast to the prolonged and significant increases of private savings. In contrast to the prolonged and significant increases of private consumption observed in the contrast to the prolonged and significant increases of private consumption observed in the early 1960s and 1980s, this aggregate only increased 2% of GNP in 1992. The higher growth of consumption between 1991 and 1993 was matched by a similar increase on the rate of growth of labor per-capita income, wich rose 4.3% in 1991-1993 compared to 2.4% per annum during 1950-1990. As a consequence, the potencial explanatory power of the a reassessment of permanent income and financial liberalization as determinants of private consumption in the 1990s was reduced. The behavior of the private saving rate in the 1990s was mainly seen in these studies as the result of a secular decline in private disposable income, closely linked to tax increases. Howevwr, given that disposable income of corporations is equivalent to corporate savings, to have a better understanding of Colombian private savings. Figure 1 shows that the stability of the National Account measure of private saving observed between 1970 and 1990 was hiding a small but secular decline in household savings (almost equivalent to 4% of GNP) which was compesated by an increase in corporate savings returned to the levels attained during 1970 and 1985. The study by Sanchez et. Al (1996) has been the first attempt to understand the rise and fall of corporate savings observed in the period 1983-1994. Using micro evidence, their results indicate that collapse of this aggregate in the early 1990s was not reflected in investment because there was almost a perfect substitution of domestic savings by collapse of the private saving rate (i.e. trade and financial liberalization) played a significant role through their effects on corporate behavior, as they relaxed liquidity corporate savins should remain an open question for future research.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA in its series BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA with number 003734.

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Length: 31
Date of creation: 30 Sep 1996
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Handle: RePEc:col:000094:003734

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  1. Hansen, Bruce E., 1992. "Testing for parameter instability in linear models," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 517-533, August.
  2. John Y. Campbell, 1986. "Does Saving Anticipate Declining Labor Income? An Alternative Test of the Permanent Income Hypothesis," NBER Working Papers 1805, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Masao Ogaki & Jonathan David Ostry & Carmen Reinhart, 1995. "Saving Behavior in Low and Middle-Income Developing Countries," IMF Working Papers 95/3, International Monetary Fund.
  4. Nickell, Stephen, 1985. "Error Correction, Partial Adjustment and All That: An Expository Note," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 47(2), pages 119-29, May.
  5. Poterba, James M, 1988. "Are Consumers Forward Looking? Evidence from Fiscal Experiments," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 78(2), pages 413-18, May.
  6. Campbell, John Y. & Mankiw, N. Gregory, 1991. "The response of consumption to income : A cross-country investigation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 723-756, May.
  7. Bagliano, Fabio C., 1994. "Do anticipated tax changes matter? Further evidence from the United Kingdom," Ricerche Economiche, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 87-108, June.
  8. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
  9. Corbo, Vittorio & Schmidt-Hebbel, Klaus, 1991. "Public policies and saving in developing countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 574, The World Bank.
  10. Bean, Charles R, 1986. "The Estimation of "Surprise" Models and the "Surprise" Consumption Function," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 53(4), pages 497-516, August.
  11. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
  12. N. Gregory Mankiw & Julio J. Rotemberg & Lawrence H. Summers, 1982. "Intertemporal Substitution in Macroeconomics," NBER Working Papers 0898, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Favero, C. & Hendry, D., 1990. "Testing The Lucas Critique: A Review," Economics Series Working Papers 99101, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  14. Kennan, John, 1979. "The Estimation of Partial Adjustment Models with Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 47(6), pages 1441-55, November.
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Cited by:
  1. Juan Nicolás Hernández, . "Revisión De Los Determinantes Macroeconómicos Del Consumo Total De Los Hogares Para El Caso Colombiano," Borradores de Economia 401, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  2. Luis Fernando Melo & Franz A.Hamann, . "Inflación Básica.Una Estimación Basada en Modelos VAR Estructurales," Borradores de Economia 093, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  3. Juan Carlos Echeverry, . "The Fall in Colombian Savings During the 1990s. Theory and Evidence," Borradores de Economia 061, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  4. Andrés Escobar & Mauricio Cardenas, 1997. "Savings Determinants in Colombia: 1925-1994," Research Department Publications, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department 3009, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
  5. Ana María Iregui B. & Ligia Alba Melo B., . "La transmisión de la política monetaria sobre el consumo en presencia de restricciones de liquidez," Borradores de Economia 547, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.

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