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Revisión de los determinantes macroeconómicos del consumo total de los hogares para el caso colombiano

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  • Juan Nicolás Hernández A.

Abstract

A la luz de la historia comprendida en el período 1954-2002**, que abarca episodios de creciente volatilidad en el producto para Colombia, el objetivo del trabajo es hallar empíricamente a partir de la información macroeconómica disponible y en el contexto de las diversas teorías, qué variables guardan una relación de largo plazo con el consumo de los hogares y cuantificar su incidencia. Adicionalmente, y partiendo de las especificaciones encontradas, determinar la calidad del pronóstico, evaluando la posible contribución de su bondad a la discusión teórica. Para el caso colombiano, dentro de los resultados se corrobora que la estructura demográfica no resulta tan relevante, el efecto negativo de la tasa de interés, el papel de la riqueza y el ingreso disponible, así como el papel del sistema financiero. Hacia el largo plazo los hogares con un mayor acceso al sistema financiero tenderían a ahorrar.

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  • Juan Nicolás Hernández A., 2006. "Revisión de los determinantes macroeconómicos del consumo total de los hogares para el caso colombiano," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 24(52), pages 80-109, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdr:ensayo:v:24:y:2006:i:52:p:80-109
    DOI: 10.32468/Espe.5202
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    1. Ana María Iregui & Ligia Alba Melo B., 2009. "La transmisión de la política monetaria sobre el consumo en presencia de restricciones de liquidez," Borradores de Economia 5254, Banco de la Republica.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    consumo; ingreso; tasa de interés; riqueza; ciclo de vida; sistema financiero; elasticidad; VEC; pronóstico.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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