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Revisión de los determinantes macroeconómicos del consumo total de los hogares para el caso colombiano

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  • Juan Nicolás Hernández A

    ()

Abstract

A la luz de la historia comprendida en el período 1954-2002, que abarca episodios de creciente volatilidad en el producto para Colombia, el objetivo del trabajo es hallar empíricamentea partir de la información macroeconómica disponible y en el contexto de las diversas teorías, qué variables guardan una relación de largo plazo con el consumo de los hogares y cuantificar su incidencia. Adicionalmente, y partiendo de las especificaciones encontradas, determinar la calidad del pronóstico, evaluando la posible contribución de su bondad a la discusión teórica. Para el caso colombiano, dentro de los resultados se corrobora que la estructura demográfica no resulta tanrelevante, el efecto negativo de la tasa de interés, el papel de la riqueza y el ingreso disponible, así como el papel del sistema financiero. Hacia el largo plazo los hogares con un mayor acceso al sistema financiero tenderían a ahorrar.

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Article provided by BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE in its journal ENSAYOS SOBRE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA.

Volume (Year): (2006)
Issue (Month): ()
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Handle: RePEc:col:000107:004266

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Keywords: Consumo; ingreso; tasa de interés; riqueza; ciclo de vida; sistema financiero; elasticidad; VEC; pronóstico.;

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  1. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
  2. Hall, Robert E, 1978. "Stochastic Implications of the Life Cycle-Permanent Income Hypothesis: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(6), pages 971-87, December.
  3. Eitrheim,O. & Jansen,E.S. & Nymoen,R., 2000. "Progress from forecast failure : the Norwegian consumption function," Memorandum 32/2000, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
  4. Alejandro López & Martha Misas & Hugo Oliveros, . "Understanding Consumption in Colombia," Borradores de Economia 058, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  5. Martha Misas & Maria Teresa Ramirez & Luisa Fernanda Silva, 2001. "Exportaciones No Tradicionales En Colombia Y Sus Determinantes," ENSAYOS SOBRE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE.
  6. Hendry, David F & Doornik, Jurgen A, 1997. "The Implications for Econometric Modelling of Forecast Failure," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 44(4), pages 437-61, September.
  7. Shleifer, Andrei & Summers, Lawrence H. & Bernheim, B. Douglas, 1986. "The Strategic Bequest Motive," Scholarly Articles 3721794, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  8. Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January.
  9. Flavin, Marjorie A, 1981. "The Adjustment of Consumption to Changing Expectations about Future Income," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(5), pages 974-1009, October.
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