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Testing Hyperinflation Theories Using the Inflation Tax Curve: A Case Study

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Author Info
Fernando de Holanda Barbosa
Tito Nícias Teixeira da Silva Filho

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Abstract

This paper tests hyperinflation theories using the inflation tax curve. This curve is estimated directly instead of the usual approach which is a by-product of demand for money empirical estimates. The inflation tax functional form encompasses several specifications as particular cases and allows to test whether or not money is inelastic. This strategy is applied to the Brazilian annual data covering almost half a century. The money inelasticity hypothesis is rejected. Thus, both the bubble and the strict hyperinflation hypotheses are rejected. The weak hyperinflation hypothesis is not rejected and the Brazilian economy could have been in the 'wrong' side of the Laffer curve for some time during hyperinflation. This outcome, contrary to conventional wisdom, is predicted by the weak hypothesis.

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Paper provided by Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department in its series Working Papers Series with number 166.

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Date of creation: Jul 2008
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Handle: RePEc:bcb:wpaper:166

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  1. Jurgen A Doornik & Henrik Hansen, . "An omnibus test for univariate and multivariate normalit," Economics Papers W4&91., Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Casella, Alessandra, 1989. "Testing for rational bubbles with exogenous or endogenous fundamentals : The German hyperinflation once more," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 109-122, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Engsted, Tom, 1993. "Cointegration and Cagan's Model of Hyperinflation under Rational Expectations," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 25(3), pages 350-60, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Easterly, William R & Mauro, Paolo & Schmidt-Hebbel, Klaus, 1995. "Money Demand and Seigniorage-Maximizing Inflation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(2), pages 583-603, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Michael, P & Nobay, A R & Peel, D A, 1994. "The German Hyperinflation and the Demand for Money Revisited," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 35(1), pages 1-22, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Sallum, Elvia Mureb & Barbosa, Fernando de Holanda & Cunha, Alexandre Barros da, 2005. "Competitive Equilibrium Hyperinflation under Rational Expectations," Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 578, Graduate School of Economics, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil). [Downloadable!]
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  7. Imrohoroglu, Selahattin, 1993. "Testing for sunspot equilibria in the German hyperinflation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 17(1-2), pages 289-317. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. de Holanda Barbosa, Fernando & Barros da Cunha, Alexandre, 2003. "Inflation tax and money essentiality," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 78(2), pages 187-195, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Goodfriend, Marvin S., 1982. "An alternate method of estimating the Cagan money demand function in hyperinflation under rational expectations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 43-57. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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