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On the Explosive Nature of Hyper-Inflation Data

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Author Info
Nielsen, Bent

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Abstract

Empirical analyses of Cagan's money demand schedule for hyper-inflation have largely ignored the explosive nature of hyper-inflationary data. It is argued that this contributes to an (i) inability to model the data to the end of the hyper-inflation, and to (ii) discrepancies between 'estimated' and 'actual' inflation tax. Using data from the extreme Yugoslavian hyper-inflation it is shown that a linear analysis of levels of prices and money fails in addressing these issues even when the explosiveness is taken into account. The explanation is that log real money has random walk behaviour while the growth of log prices is explosive. A simple solution to these issues is found by replacing the conventional measure of inflation by the cost of holding money.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Kiel Institute for the World Economy in its journal Economics: The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal.

Volume (Year): 2 (2008)
Issue (Month): 21 ()
Pages: 1-29
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifweej:7334

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Related research
Keywords: Cost of holding money; co-explosiveness; co-integration; explosive processes; hyperinflation;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money

References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Taylor, Mark P, 1991. "The Hyperinflation Model of Money Demand Revisited," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 23(3), pages 327-51, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Petrovic, Pavle & Bogetic, Zeljko & Vujosevic, Zorica, 1999. "The Yugoslav Hyperinflation of 1992-1994: Causes, Dynamics, and Money Supply Process," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 335-353, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Diba, Behzad T. & Grossman, Herschel I., 1988. "Rational inflationary bubbles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 35-46, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Christiano, Lawrence J, 1987. "Cagan's Model of Hyperinflation under Rational Expectations," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 28(1), pages 33-49, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Nielsen, Bent, 2001. "The Asymptotic Distribution of Unit Root Tests of Unstable Autoregressive Processes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(1), pages 211-19, January.
  6. Michael, P & Nobay, A R & Peel, D A, 1994. "The German Hyperinflation and the Demand for Money Revisited," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 35(1), pages 1-22, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Evans, Paul, 1978. "Time-Series Analysis of the German Hyperinflation," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 19(1), pages 195-209, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Frenkel, Jacob A, 1977. "The Forward Exchange Rate, Expectations, and the Demand for Money: The German Hyperinflation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(4), pages 653-70, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Nielsen, Bent, 2005. "Strong Consistency Results For Least Squares Estimators In General Vector Autoregressions With Deterministic Terms," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(03), pages 534-561, June. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. Bent Nielsen & Eric Engler, 2007. "The empirical process of autoregressive residuals," Economics Papers 2007-W01, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford. [Downloadable!]
  11. Bent Nielsen, 2005. "Analysis of co-explosive processes," Economics Papers 2005-W08, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford. [Downloadable!]
  12. Engsted, Tom, 1993. "Cointegration and Cagan's Model of Hyperinflation under Rational Expectations," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 25(3), pages 350-60, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Engsted, Tom, 2006. "Explosive bubbles in the cointegrated VAR model," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 154-162, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Sargent, Thomas J, 1977. "The Demand for Money During Hyperinflations under Rational Expectations: I," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 18(1), pages 59-82, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  15. Abel, Andrew & Dornbusch, Rudiger & Huizinga, John & Marcus, Alan, 1979. "Money demand during hyperinflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 97-104, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Sargent, Thomas J & Wallace, Neil, 1973. "Rational Expectations and the Dynamics of Hyperinflation," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 14(2), pages 328-50, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Engsted, Tom, 1996. "The monetary model of the exchange rate under hyperinflation: New encouraging evidence," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 37-44, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Goldfeld, Stephen M. & Sichel, Daniel E., 1990. "The demand for money," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: B. M. Friedman & F. H. Hahn (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 8, pages 299-356 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Engsted, Tom, 1998. "Money Demand During Hyperinflation: Cointegration, Rational Expectations, and the Importance of Money Demand Shocks," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 533-552, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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