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Modeling Hyperinflation Phenomenon: A Bayesian Approach

Author

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  • Rolando Gonzales Martínez

    (Unidad de Análisis de Políticas Económicas y Sociales, Bolivian Government)

Abstract

Hyperinflations are short-lived episodes of economic instability in prices which characteristically last twenty months or less. Classical statistical techniques applied to these small samples could lead to an incorrect inference problem. This paper describes a Bayesian approach for modeling hyper-inflations which improves the modeling accuracy using small-sample inference based on specific parametric assumptions. A theory-congruent model for the Bolivian hyperinflation was estimated as a case study.

Suggested Citation

  • Rolando Gonzales Martínez, 2013. "Modeling Hyperinflation Phenomenon: A Bayesian Approach," Documentos de Investigación - Research Papers 8, CEMLA.
    • Handle: RePEc:cml:docinv:8
    as

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Hyperinflation; Bayesian methods;

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General

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