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Exchange rate pass-through and inflation targeting in Peru

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  • Diego Winkelried

Abstract

It has been widely documented that the exchange rate pass-through to domestic inflation has decreased significantly in most of the industrialized world. As microeconomic factors cannot completely explain such a widespread phenomenon, a macroeconomic explanation linked to the inflationary environment—that a low and more stable inflation rate leads to a decrease in the pass-through—has gained popularity. Using a structural VAR framework, this paper presents evidence of a similar decline in the pass-through in Peru, a small open economy that gradually reduced inflation to international levels in order to adopt a fully fledged inflation targeting scheme in 2002. It is argued that the establishment of a credible regime of low inflation has been instrumental in driving the exchange rate pass-through down. Copyright Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2014

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  • Diego Winkelried, 2014. "Exchange rate pass-through and inflation targeting in Peru," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 46(4), pages 1181-1196, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:46:y:2014:i:4:p:1181-1196
    DOI: 10.1007/s00181-013-0715-4
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    Cited by:

    1. Salsa Dilla & Noer Azam Achsani & Lukytawati Anggraeni, 2017. "Do Inflation Targeting Really Reduced Exchange Rate Pass-through?," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(3), pages 444-452.
    2. Ramos, María Gracia & Winkelried, Diego, 2016. "Tendencias comunes en el índice de precios al consumidor," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 31, pages 29-44.
    3. Winkelried, Diego & Saldarriaga, Miguel, 2013. "Socios comerciales y crecimiento en América Latina: Un enfoque SVAR dinámico," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 25, pages 81-102.
    4. Yanamandra, Venkataramana, 2015. "Exchange rate changes and inflation in India: What is the extent of exchange rate pass-through to imports?," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 57-68.
    5. Diego Winkelried, 2014. "Exchange rate pass-through and inflation targeting in Peru," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 46(4), pages 1181-1196, June.
    6. Mohamed Ali Chroufa & Nouri Chtourou, 2023. "Asymmetric relationship between exchange rate and inflation in Tunisia: fresh evidence from multiple-threshold NARDL model and Granger quantile causality," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 3(7), pages 1-21, July.
    7. Winkelried, Diego, 2013. "Modelo de Proyección Trimestral del BCRP: Actualización y novedades," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 26, pages 9-60.
    8. Mirza, Nawazish & Naqvi, Bushra & Rizvi, Syed Kumail Abbas & Boubaker, Sabri, 2023. "Exchange rate pass-through and inflation targeting regime under energy price shocks," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    9. Castellares, Renzo & Toma, Hiroshi, 2020. "Effects of a mandatory local currency pricing law on the exchange rate pass-through," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
    10. Oluwasheyi Oladipo, 2017. "Inflation targeting and exchange rate pass-through to domestic prices: evidence from South Africa," Journal of Economic and Financial Studies (JEFS), LAR Center Press, vol. 5(5), pages 1-11, October.
    11. Anderl, Christina & Caporale, Guglielmo Maria, 2023. "Nonlinearities in the exchange rate pass-through: The role of inflation expectations," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 86-101.
    12. Bossone, Biagio, 2019. "The portfolio theory of inflation (and policy effectiveness)," Economics Discussion Papers 2019-29, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    13. Fernando J. Pérez Forero & Marco Vega, 2016. "Asymmetric Exchange Rate Pass-through: Evidence from Nonlinear SVARs," Working Papers 63, Peruvian Economic Association.
    14. Oluwasheyi Oladipo, 2017. "The Effects of Inflation Targeting on Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Domestic Prices: A Case Study of South Africa," Advances in Management and Applied Economics, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 7(6), pages 1-4.
    15. Winkelried, Diego, 2012. "Traspaso del tipo de cambio y metas de inflación en el Perú," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 23, pages 9-24.
    16. Eliphas Ndou, 2022. "The exchange rate passthrough to consumer price inflation in South Africa: has the inflation target band induced a structural change in the size of passthrough?," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 2(6), pages 1-32, June.
    17. Tunç, Cengiz, 2017. "A Survey on Exchange Rate Pass through in Emerging Markets," Bulletin of Economic Theory and Analysis, BETA Journals, vol. 2(3), pages 205-233, July-Sept.
    18. Jingjian, Si & Xiangyun, Gao & Jinsheng, Zhou & Anjian, Wang & Xiaotian, Sun & Yiran, Zhao & Hongyu, Wei, 2023. "The impact of oil price shocks on energy stocks from the perspective of investor attention," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 278(PB).
    19. Winkelried, Diego & Saldarriaga, Miguel, 2012. "Trade linkages and growth in Latin America: A time-varying SVAR approach," Working Papers 2012-011, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    20. Abdul Jalil, 2020. "What Do We Know of Exchange Rate Pass Through?," PIDE Knowledge Brief 2020:5, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics.
    21. Ülke, Volkan, 2015. "The Degree of Currency Substitution and Exchange Rate Pass-Through," MPRA Paper 75633, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 15 Dec 2015.
    22. Castellares, Renzo, 2017. "Condiciones de mercado y calidad como determinantes del traspaso del tipo de cambio," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 33, pages 29-41.
    23. Bossone, Biagio, 2019. "The portfolio theory of inflation and policy (in)effectiveness," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 13, pages 1-25.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange rate pass-through; Inflation targeting; Structural VAR;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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