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Expansion of Mercosur's Agricultural Exports to the EU: An Empirical Assessment of the Trade Flows

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  • Niemi, Jyrki S.
  • Huan-Niemi, Ellen
  • Ledebur, Oliver von
  • Salamon, Petra
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    Abstract

    This paper provides new evidence on income and price elasticities of demand for agricultural exports from Mercosur countries to the EU. Econometric models are constructed for eight agricultural commodities - beef, cocoa, coffee, orange juice, poultry, sugar, soya and wheat - exported from Mercosur to the EU. A modelling approach based on the error correction mechanism is used in order to emphasise the importance of the dynamics of trade functions. The results indicate that there is a relatively weak demand response to income and price changes in the EU. However, the results also suggest that relative-price variations affect significantly the demand for Mercosur commodity exports, implying that the exporter's market share is influenced by price competitiveness.

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    File URL: http://purl.umn.edu/24606
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by European Association of Agricultural Economists in its series 2005 International Congress, August 23-27, 2005, Copenhagen, Denmark with number 24606.

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    Date of creation: 2005
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    Handle: RePEc:ags:eaae05:24606

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    Related research

    Keywords: agricultural trade; European Union; Mercosur; econometric models; cointegration; International Relations/Trade; C22; Q17;

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    1. Scobie, Grant M. & Johnson, Paul R., 1975. "Estimation of the elasticity of substitution in the presence of errors of measurement," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 51-56, February.
    2. Davidson, James E H, et al, 1978. "Econometric Modelling of the Aggregate Time-Series Relationship between Consumers' Expenditure and Income in the United Kingdom," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 88(352), pages 661-92, December.
    3. Phillips, Peter C B & Ouliaris, S, 1990. "Asymptotic Properties of Residual Based Tests for Cointegration," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 165-93, January.
    4. Honma, Masayoshi, 1991. "Growth in Japan's horticultural trade with developing countries: an economic analysis of the market," Research reports 89, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    5. Hendry, David F, 1986. "Econometric Modelling with Cointegrated Variables: An Overview," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 48(3), pages 201-12, August.
    6. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June.
    7. Banerjee, Anindya & Dolado, Juan J. & Galbraith, John W. & Hendry, David, 1993. "Co-integration, Error Correction, and the Econometric Analysis of Non-Stationary Data," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198288107.
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