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Is There A Greek-Turkish Arms Race? Some Further Empirical Results From Causality Tests

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Author Info
CHRISTOS KOLLIAS
SUZANNA-MARIA PALEOLOGOU

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Abstract

The Greek-Turkish rivalry has attracted considerable attention in the defence economics literature. Given the tense bilateral relations between the two countries, a number of studies have addressed the issue of a Greek-Turkish arms race. The empirical results that have been reported vary depending on the methodology used and time period covered. Unidirectional, bi-directional as well as no causality between Greek and Turkish military expenditures have been reported. This paper contributes to the Greek-Turkish arms race literature using the causality methodology employed by Hendry and Ericsson (1991) and Davidson et al. (1978). The time period covered is 1950-1999 and the results reported here appear to suggest the presence of bi-directional causality and therefore an armaments race between Greece and Turkey.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Taylor and Francis Journals in its journal Defence and Peace Economics.

Volume (Year): 13 (2002)
Issue (Month): 4 (January)
Pages: 321-328
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:13:y:2002:i:4:p:321-328

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Related research
Keywords: Greece; Turkey; Arms Race; Causality;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Phillips, P.C.B., 1986. "Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression," Cahiers de recherche 8633, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
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  2. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Phillips, P C B, 1987. "Time Series Regression with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 277-301, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
  5. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Andreou, Andreas S. & Zombanakis, George A., 2000. "Financial Versus Human Resources in the Greek-Turkish Arms Race: A Forecasting Investigation Using Artificial Neural Networks," MPRA Paper 13892, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  7. Perron, Pierre, 1988. "Trends and random walks in macroeconomic time series : Further evidence from a new approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 297-332. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. George Georgiou & Panayiotis Kapopoulos & Sophia Lazaretou, . "Modelling Greek - Turkish Rivalry: An Empirical Investigation Of Defence Spending Dynamics," Working Papers 9411, University of Crete, Department of Economics.
  9. Selami Sezgin & Jülide Yildirim, 2002. "The Demand for Turkish Defence Expenditure," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 13(2), pages 121-128, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Hendry, David F & Ericsson, Neil R, 1991. "An Econometric Analysis of U.K. Money Demand in 'Monetary Trends in the United States and the United Kingdom' by Milton Friedman and Anna Schwartz," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(1), pages 8-38, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Jurgen Brauer, 2002. "Survey and Review of the Defense Economics Literature on Greece and Turkey: What Have We Learned?," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 13(2), pages 85-107, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Davidson, James E H, et al, 1978. "Econometric Modelling of the Aggregate Time-Series Relationship between Consumers' Expenditure and Income in the United Kingdom," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 88(352), pages 661-92, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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