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Financial Versus Human Resources in the Greek-Turkish Arms Race: A Forecasting Investigation Using Artificial Neural Networks

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  • Andreou, Andreas S.
  • Zombanakis, George A.

Abstract

This paper aims at forecasting the burden on the Greek economy resulting from the arms race against Turkey and at concentrating on the leading determinants of this burden. The military debt and the defence share of GDP are employed alternatively in order to approximate the measurement of the arms race pressure on Greece, and the method used is that of artificial neural networks. The use of a wide variety of explanatory variables in combination with the promising results derived, suggest that the impact on the Greek economy resulting from this arms race is determined, to a large extent, by demographic factors which strongly favour the Turkish side. Prediction on both miltary debt and defence expenditure exhibited highly satisfactory accuracy, while the estimation of input significance, indicates that variables describing the Turkish side are often dominant over the corresponding Greek ones.

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File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/13892/
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 13892.

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Date of creation: Jan 2000
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Publication status: Published in Defence and Peace Economics 4.11(2000): pp. 403-426
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:13892

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Related research

Keywords: Greek Military Debt; Defence Expenditure; Neural Networks;

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References

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  1. Christos Kollias & Stelios Makrydakis, 1997. "Is there a Greek-Turkish arms race?: Evidence from cointegration and causality tests," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(4), pages 355-379.
  2. Sandler,Todd & Hartley,Keith, 1995. "The Economics of Defense," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521447287.
  3. Christos Kollias, 1995. "Preliminary findings on the economic effects of Greek military expenditure," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(1), pages 16-18.
  4. Antonakis, Nicholas, 1996. "Military Expenditure and Economic Growth in Less Developed Countries: A Simulta¬neous Equation Approach with an Appli¬cation to Greece, 1958-90," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio di Genova, Camera di Commercio di Genova, vol. 49(3), pages 329-346.
  5. Benoit, Emile, 1978. "Growth and Defense in Developing Countries," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 26(2), pages 271-80, January.
  6. Stavrinos, Vasilios G. & Zombanakis, George A., 1998. "The Vicious Cycle of the Foreign Military Debt," MPRA Paper 17758, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  7. Levine, Paul & Smith, Ron, 1997. "The arms trade and the stability of regional arms races," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 21(2-3), pages 631-654.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Andreou, Andreas S. & Zombanakis, George A., 2010. "Financial vs human resources in the Greek-Turkish arms race 10 years on," MPRA Paper 38505, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Andreas S. Andreou & George A. Zombanakis, 2011. "Financial Versus Human Resources In The Greek--Turkish Arms Race 10 Years On: A Forecasting Investigation Using Artificial Neural Networks," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(4), pages 459-469, November.
  3. A. S. Andreou & K. E. Parsopoulos & M. N. Vrahatis & G. A. Zombanakis, 2004. "An alliance between Cyprus and Greece: assessing its partners' relative security contribution," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(5), pages 481-495.
  4. Andreou, Andreas S. & Zombanakis, George A., 2003. "Intelligent information systems for defence problems," MPRA Paper 38637, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Andreou, Andreas S. & Zombanakis, George A., 2001. "A Neural Network Measurement of Relative Military Security: The Case of Greece and Cyprus," MPRA Paper 14539, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2001.
  6. A. S. Andreou & K. E. Parsopoulos & M. N. Vrahatis & G. A. Zombanakis, 2002. "Optimal versus required defence expenditure: The case of the Greek-Turkish arms race," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(4), pages 329-347.
  7. Christos Kollias & Suzanna-Maria Paleologou, 2002. "Is there a Greek-Turkish arms race? Some further empirical results from causality tests," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(4), pages 321-328.

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