Financial Versus Human Resources in the Greek-Turkish Arms Race: A Forecasting Investigation Using Artificial Neural Networks
AbstractThis paper aims at forecasting the burden on the Greek economy resulting from the arms race against Turkey and at concentrating on the leading determinants of this burden. The military debt and the defence share of GDP are employed alternatively in order to approximate the measurement of the arms race pressure on Greece, and the method used is that of artificial neural networks. The use of a wide variety of explanatory variables in combination with the promising results derived, suggest that the impact on the Greek economy resulting from this arms race is determined, to a large extent, by demographic factors which strongly favour the Turkish side. Prediction on both miltary debt and defence expenditure exhibited highly satisfactory accuracy, while the estimation of input significance, indicates that variables describing the Turkish side are often dominant over the corresponding Greek ones.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 13892.
Date of creation: Jan 2000
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in Defence and Peace Economics 4.11(2000): pp. 403-426
Greek Military Debt; Defence Expenditure; Neural Networks;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C45 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Neural Networks and Related Topics
- H56 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - National Security and War
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