Does the risk of exchange rate fluctuation really affect international trade flows between countries?
AbstractThis paper investigates the effect of exchange rate volatility on the UK's import trade. As part of econometric problems arising from a measured volatility, we consider a special case when an ARCH type auxiliary model is used to measure uncertainty in the exchange rate, and discuss a procedure for the correct inference of the OLS estimates of a primary equation in the second stage, which includes the generated variable. By applying this two-step approach, we find a statistically significant, negative impact of exchange rate uncertainty on Britain''s imports.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by AccessEcon in its journal Economics Bulletin.
Volume (Year): 6 (2004)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
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ARCH model Consistent OLS estimation Exchange rate fluctuations International trade;
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