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Ratings assignments: Lessons from international banks

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Author Info

  • Caporale, Guglielmo Maria
  • Matousek, Roman
  • Stewart, Chris

Abstract

This paper estimates ordered logit models for bank ratings which include a country index to capture country-specific variation. The empirical findings support the hypothesis that the individual international bank ratings assigned by Fitch Ratings are underpinned by fundamental quantitative financial analyses. Also, there is strong evidence of a country effect. Our model is shown to provide accurate predictions of bank ratings for the period prior to the 2007–2008 banking crisis based upon publicly available information. However, our results also suggest that quantitative models are unlikely to predict ratings with complete accuracy. Furthermore, we find that both quantitative models and rating agencies are likely to produce highly inaccurate predictions of ratings during periods of financial instability.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of International Money and Finance.

Volume (Year): 31 (2012)
Issue (Month): 6 ()
Pages: 1593-1606

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Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:31:y:2012:i:6:p:1593-1606

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30443

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Keywords: International banks; Ratings; Ordered logit models; Country index;

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References

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  16. Giuliano Iannotta, 2006. "Testing for Opaqueness in the European Banking Industry: Evidence from Bond Credit Ratings," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer, vol. 30(3), pages 287-309, December.
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Cited by:
  1. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Roman Matousek & Chris Stewart, 2010. "EU Banks Rating Assignments: Is there Heterogeneity between New and Old Member Countries?," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1009, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  2. Williams, Gwion & Alsakka, Rasha & ap Gwilym, Owain, 2013. "The impact of sovereign rating actions on bank ratings in emerging markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 563-577.

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