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The Cowles Commission Approach, Real Business Cycle Theories, and New Keynesian Economics

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Abstract

The Cowles Commission approach is reviewed and compared to the approaches of real business cycle (RBC) theorists and new Keynesian economists. It is argued that RBC models are not tested in a serious enough way and that the new Keynesian literature is not empirical enough for testing even to be a serious possibility. Macroeconomics seems to be moving away from its traditional empirical basis, which is sad. This paper argues for returning to the path that was abandoned by most macroeconomists around 1970, namely the specification and testing of structural macroeconometric models.

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  • Ray C. Fair, 1992. "The Cowles Commission Approach, Real Business Cycle Theories, and New Keynesian Economics," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1004, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    • Handle: RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:1004
    Note: CFP 821.
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    Cited by:

    1. Hartwig, Jochen, 2015. "Structural change, aggregate demand and employment dynamics in the OECD, 1970–2010," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 36-45.
    2. Ramser, Hans Jürgen, 1992. "Nicht-kompetitive Gütermärkte im makroökonomischen Modell," Discussion Papers, Series I 263, University of Konstanz, Department of Economics.
    3. Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 1998. "An optimizing model for monetary policy analysis: can habit formation help?," Working Papers 98-1, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    4. Marco Del Negro & Frank Schorfheide, 2003. "Take your model bowling: forecasting with general equilibrium models," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, vol. 88(Q4), pages 35-50.
    5. Lars Peter Hansen & James J. Heckman, 1996. "The Empirical Foundations of Calibration," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 10(1), pages 87-104, Winter.
    6. Haber Gottfried, 2008. "Monetary and Fiscal Policy Analysis With an Agent-Based Macroeconomic Model," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 228(2-3), pages 276-295, April.
    7. Maria Elena Bontempi, 2013. "The Istat MeMo-It Macroeconometric Model: comments and suggestions for possible extensions," Rivista di statistica ufficiale, ISTAT - Italian National Institute of Statistics - (Rome, ITALY), vol. 15(1), pages 47-56.
    8. Snowdon, Brian & Vane, Howard R., 1996. "The development of modern macroeconomics: Reflections in the light of Johnson's analysis after twenty-five years," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 381-401.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Macroeconomic models; specification testing; model specification;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • B41 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Economic Methodology - - - Economic Methodology
    • B22 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought since 1925 - - - Macroeconomics

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