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On the Importance of the Arrival of New Information

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  • Rómulo Chumacero

Abstract

This paper develops a framework for evaluating the importance of the arrival of new information for forecasting, estimation, and decision making. By fusing known and recently developed statistical tests and concepts, the paper provides guidelines for detecting outliers, influential observations, innovations, and possible breaks in the end of the sample. The methodology is applied to analyze the Chilean CPI inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Rómulo Chumacero, 2010. "On the Importance of the Arrival of New Information," Estudios de Economia, University of Chile, Department of Economics, vol. 37(2 Year 20), pages 207-215, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:udc:esteco:v:37:y:2010:i:2:p:207-215
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. D. W. K. Andrews, 2003. "End-of-Sample Instability Tests," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(6), pages 1661-1694, November.
    2. Clements,Michael & Hendry,David, 1998. "Forecasting Economic Time Series," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521632423.
    3. Christoffersen, Peter F, 1998. "Evaluating Interval Forecasts," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 841-862, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    News; Innovation; Outlier; Influential Analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

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