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Price level and inflation in the GCC countries

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  • Murshed, Hasan
  • Nakibullah, Ashraf

Abstract

The prevailing pegged exchange rate system has been blamed for the recent higher inflation in the GCC countries. However, empirical evidence for period 1975–2011 shows that the short-run and long-run exchange rate pass-through elasticities to the consumer price levels of the GCC countries, in contrast to the popular belief, are either close to zero or statistically insignificant. The trading partners' (foreign) inflation is the main determinant of the consumer price inflation in these countries. Domestic factors play only a small part in the long-run determination of inflation of the GCC countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Murshed, Hasan & Nakibullah, Ashraf, 2015. "Price level and inflation in the GCC countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 239-252.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reveco:v:39:y:2015:i:c:p:239-252
    DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2015.04.008
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Alsamara, Mouyad & Mrabet, Zouhair & Hatemi-J, Abdulnasser, 2020. "Pass-through of import cost into consumer prices and inflation in GCC countries: Evidence from a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lags model," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 89-101.
    2. Ashraf Nakibullah, 2016. "Impacts of Foreign and Domestic Structural Shocks on Consumer Prices of the GCC Countries," Research in World Economy, Research in World Economy, Sciedu Press, vol. 7(2), pages 34-43, December.
    3. Ashraf Nakibullah, 2018. "Economic Diversification in Bahrain," Applied Economics and Finance, Redfame publishing, vol. 5(5), pages 67-74, September.
    4. Ashraf Nakibullah, 2017. "State of Shocks Synchronization among Members of the GCC," Research in World Economy, Research in World Economy, Sciedu Press, vol. 8(1), pages 15-23, June.
    5. Kia, Amir & Jafari, Mahboubeh, 2020. "Forward-looking agents and inflation in an oil-producing country: Evidence from Iran," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    6. Ashraf Nakibullah, 2017. "The Effect of Fixed Exchange Rates on Monetary Policy of the GCC Countries," Applied Economics and Finance, Redfame publishing, vol. 4(2), pages 11-19, March.
    7. Alsamara, Mouyad & Mrabet, Zouhair & Dombrecht, Michel, 2018. "Asymmetric import cost pass-through in GCC countries: Evidence from nonlinear panel analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 432-440.
    8. Nasir, Muhammad Ali & Al-Emadi, Ahmed Abdulsalam & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2019. "Importance of oil shocks and the GCC macroeconomy: A structural VAR analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 166-179.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Imported inflation; Exchange rate pass-through; ARDL model; Bounds testing technique;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • O53 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East

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