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On the optimality of a GCC Monetary Union: Structural VAR, Common Trends and Common Cycles Evidence

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  • Abu-Qarn, Aamer
  • Abu-Bader, Suleiman

Abstract

This paper examines the suitability of the proposed monetary union among the members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). To do so, we identify the underlying structural shocks that these economies are subject to and assess the extent to which the shocks are symmetric. Additionally, we test for common trends and common business cycles among the GCC economies. We find that while the transitory demand shocks are typically symmetric, the permanent supply shocks are asymmetric. Furthermore, we do not find synchronous long-run and short-run movements in output. Despite the progress that has been made in terms of integration, our findings indicate that the conditions for forming a GCC monetary union have not as yet been met.

Suggested Citation

  • Abu-Qarn, Aamer & Abu-Bader, Suleiman, 2006. "On the optimality of a GCC Monetary Union: Structural VAR, Common Trends and Common Cycles Evidence," MPRA Paper 971, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:971
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    Cited by:

    1. Louis, Rosmy & Balli, Faruk & Osman, Mohammad, 2008. "Monetary Union Among Arab Gulf Cooperation Council (AGCC) Countries: Does the symmetry of shocks extend to the non-oil sector?," MPRA Paper 11611, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Willem H. Buiter, 2010. "Economic, Political and Institutional Prerequisites for Monetary Union Among the Members of the Gulf Cooperation Council," Chapters, in: Ronald MacDonald & Abdulrazak Al Faris (ed.), Currency Union and Exchange Rate Issues, chapter 3, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    3. Essahbi Essaadi, 2017. "The feasibility of currency union in Gulf Cooperation Council countries: A business cycle synchronisation view," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(10), pages 2153-2171, October.
    4. Murshed, Hasan & Nakibullah, Ashraf, 2015. "Price level and inflation in the GCC countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 239-252.
    5. Rosmy Jean Louis & Faruk Balli & Mohamed Osman, 2012. "On the choice of an anchor for the GCC currency: does the symmetry of shocks extend to both the oil and the non-oil sectors?," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 9(1), pages 83-110, March.
    6. Magda Kandil & Mohamed Trabelsi, 2012. "Is the Announced Monetary Union in GCC Countries Feasible? A Multivariate Structural Var Approach," Middle East Development Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(1), pages 1250001-121, January.
    7. Rosmy Jean Louis & Mohamed Osman & Faruk Balli, 2010. "Is the US Dollar a Suitable Anchor for the Newly Proposed GCC Currency?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(12), pages 1898-1922, December.
    8. Al-Abri, Almukhtar & Genc, Ismail H. & Naufal, George S, 2018. "The Impact of Government Spending on GDP in a Remitting Country," IZA Discussion Papers 11676, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    9. Omotor, Douglason G. & Niringiye, Aggrey, 2011. "Optimum Currency Area and Shock Asymmetry: A Dynamic Analysis of the West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ)," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 71-82, September.
    10. Abdulrazak Al Faris, 2010. "Currency Union in the GCC Countries: History, Prerequisites and Implications," Chapters, in: Ronald MacDonald & Abdulrazak Al Faris (ed.), Currency Union and Exchange Rate Issues, chapter 2, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    11. Hem Basnet & Subhash Sharma, 2015. "Exchange rate movements and policy coordination in Latin America," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 39(4), pages 679-696, October.
    12. Weshah Razzak, "undated". "On the GCC Currency Union," API-Working Paper Series 0910, Arab Planning Institute - Kuwait, Information Center.
    13. Ahmed AlKholifey & Ali Alreshan, 2010. "GCC monetary union," IFC Bulletins chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Proceedings of the SARB/IFC seminar on "Economic and financial convergence en route to regional economic integration: experience, prospects and statis, volume 32, pages 17-51, Bank for International Settlements.
    14. Stefan Eichler & Alexander Karmann, 2011. "Optimum Currency Areas in Emerging Market Regions: Evidence Based on the Symmetry of Economic Shocks," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 22(5), pages 935-954, November.
    15. Etienne Farvaque & Norimichi Matsueda, 2010. "On the Sustainability of a Monetary Union under External Shocks: a Theoretical Result and Its Application to the Gulf Countries," Discussion Paper Series 66, School of Economics, Kwansei Gakuin University, revised Dec 2010.
    16. Ashraf Nakibullah, 2017. "State of Shocks Synchronization among Members of the GCC," Research in World Economy, Research in World Economy, Sciedu Press, vol. 8(1), pages 15-23, June.
    17. Ben Abdesslem, Amel, 2013. "L’union monétaire des pays du Conseil de coopération du golfe : viabilité et perspectives d’avenir," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 89(3), pages 191-206, Septembre.
    18. Adom, Assandé Désiré & Sharma, Subhash C. & Morshed, A.K.M. Mahbub, 2010. "Economic integration in Africa," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 245-253, August.
    19. Eric Pentecost & Paul Turner, 2010. "Demand and Supply Shocks in the Caribbean Economies: Implications for Monetary Union," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(10), pages 1325-1337, October.
    20. Rosmy Jean Louis & Faruk Balli & Mohamed Osman, 2012. "On the feasibility of monetary union among Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries: does the symmetry of shocks extend to the non-oil sector?," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 36(2), pages 319-334, April.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Gulf Cooperation Council; GCC; optimal monetary union; cointegration; common cycles; structural VAR;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration

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