On the Optimality of a GCC Monetary Union: Structural VAR, Common Trends, and Common Cycles Evidence
AbstractThe suitability of the proposed monetary union among the members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) is examined. The authors identify the underlying structural shocks that these economies are subject to and assess the extent to which the shocks are symmetric. Alternatively, the authors test for common trends and common business cycles among the GCC economies. They find that while the transitory demand shocks are typically symmetric, the permanent supply shocks are asymmetric. Furthermore, they do not find synchronous long-run and short-run movements in output. Despite the progress that has been made in terms of integration, the findings indicate that the conditions for forming a GCC monetary union have not as yet been met. Copyright 2008 The Authors.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Wiley Blackwell in its journal World Economy.
Volume (Year): 31 (2008)
Issue (Month): 5 (05)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0378-5920
Other versions of this item:
- Suleiman Abu-Bader & Aamer Abu-Qarn, 2006. "On the Optimality of a GCC Monetary Union: Structural VAR, Common Trends and Common Cycles Evidence," Working Papers 225, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Department of Economics.
- Abu-Qarn, Aamer & Abu-Bader, Suleiman, 2006. "On the optimality of a GCC Monetary Union: Structural VAR, Common Trends and Common Cycles Evidence," MPRA Paper 971, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
- F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Belkacem Laabas and Imed Limam, . "Are GCC Countries Ready for Currency Union?," API-Working Paper Series 0203, Arab Planning Institute - Kuwait, Information Center.
- Horvath, Julius & Ratfai, Attila, 2004. "Supply and demand shocks in accession countries to the Economic and Monetary Union," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 202-211, June.
- Bayoumi, Tamim & Eichengreen, Barry, 1994.
"Monetary and exchange rate arrangements for NAFTA,"
Journal of Development Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 125-165, February.
- Behrouz Guerami & S. Nuri Erbas & George T. Abed, 2003. "The GCC Monetary Union," IMF Working Papers 03/66, International Monetary Fund.
- Vahid, F & Engle, Robert F, 1993. "Common Trends and Common Cycles," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(4), pages 341-60, Oct.-Dec..
- Humayon A. Dar & John R. Presley, 2001. "The Gulf Co-operation Council: A Slow Path to Integration?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(9), pages 1161-1178, 09.
- Olivier Jean Blanchard & Danny Quah, 1988.
"The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbance,"
497, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
- Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-73, September.
- Olivier Jean Blanchard & Danny Quah, 1988. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," NBER Working Papers 2737, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Michael Sturm & Nikolaus Siegfried, 2005. "Regional monetary integration in the member states of the Gulf Cooperation Council," Occasional Paper Series 31, European Central Bank.
- Ugo Fasano-Filho & Andrea Schaechter, 2003. "Monetary Union Among Member Countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council," IMF Occasional Papers 223, International Monetary Fund.
- Zaidi, Iqbal, 1990. "Monetary coordination among the gulf cooperation council countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 759-768, May.
- Steven K. Buigut & Neven Valev, 2004.
"Is the Proposed East African Monetary Union an Optimal Currency Area? A Structural Vector Autoregression Analysis,"
International Center for Public Policy Working Paper Series, at AYSPS, GSU
paper0407, International Center for Public Policy, Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University.
- Buigut, Steven K. & Valev, Neven T., 2005. "Is the proposed East African Monetary Union an optimal currency area? a structural vector autoregression analysis," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 33(12), pages 2119-2133, December.
- Arie Arnon & Avia Spivak, 1996. "Monetary integration between the Israeli, Jordanian and Palestinian economies," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 132(2), pages 259-277, September.
- Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
- Jean Louis, Rosmy & Balli, Faruk & Osman, Mohamed, 2010.
"On the choice of an anchor for the GCC currency: does the symmetry of shocks extend to both the oil and the non-oil sectors,"
38056, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Rosmy Jean Louis & Faruk Balli & Mohamed Osman, 2012. "On the choice of an anchor for the GCC currency: does the symmetry of shocks extend to both the oil and the non-oil sectors?," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 9(1), pages 83-110, March.
- Etienne Farvaque & Norimichi Matsueda, 2010. "On the Sustainability of a Monetary Union under External Shocks: a Theoretical Result and Its Application to the Gulf Countries," Discussion Paper Series 66, School of Economics, Kwansei Gakuin University, revised Dec 2010.
- Jean Louis, Rosmy & Balli, Faruk & Osman, Mohammad, 2009.
"Is the US dollar a suitable anchor for the newly proposed GCC currency?,"
34003, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2010.
- Rosmy Jean Louis & Mohamed Osman & Faruk Balli, 2010. "Is the US Dollar a Suitable Anchor for the Newly Proposed GCC Currency?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(12), pages 1898-1922, December.
- Ahmed AlKholifey & Ali Alreshan, 2010. "GCC monetary union," IFC Bulletins chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Proceedings of the SARB/IFC seminar on "Economic and financial convergence en route to regional economic integration: experience, prospects and statis, volume 32, pages 17-51 Bank for International Settlements.
- Stefan Eichler & Alexander Karmann, 2011. "Optimum Currency Areas in Emerging Market Regions: Evidence Based on the Symmetry of Economic Shocks," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 22(5), pages 935-954, November.
- Willem Buiter, 2008.
"Economic, Political, and Institutional Prerequisites for Monetary Union Among the Members of the Gulf Cooperation Council,"
Open Economies Review,
Springer, vol. 19(5), pages 579-612, November.
- Buiter, Willem H, 2008. "Economic, Political, and Institutional Prerequisites for Monetary Union Among the Members of the Gulf Cooperation Council," CEPR Discussion Papers 6639, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Louis, Rosmy & Balli, Faruk & Osman, Mohammad, 2008. "Monetary Union Among Arab Gulf Cooperation Council (AGCC) Countries: Does the symmetry of shocks extend to the non-oil sector?," MPRA Paper 11611, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Omotor, Douglason G. & Niringiye, Aggrey, 2011. "Optimum Currency Area and Shock Asymmetry: A Dynamic Analysis of the West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ)," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 71-82, September.
- Adom, Assandé Désiré & Sharma, Subhash C. & Morshed, A.K.M. Mahbub, 2010. "Economic integration in Africa," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 245-253, August.
- Rosmy Jean Louis & Faruk Balli & Mohamed Osman, 2012. "On the feasibility of monetary union among Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries: does the symmetry of shocks extend to the non-oil sector?," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer, vol. 36(2), pages 319-334, April.
- Weshah Razzak, .
"On the GCC Currency Union,"
API-Working Paper Series
0910, Arab Planning Institute - Kuwait, Information Center.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing) or (Christopher F. Baum).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.