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On the Optimality of a GCC Monetary Union: Structural VAR, Common Trends, and Common Cycles Evidence

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  • Aamer S. Abu‐Qarn
  • Suleiman Abu‐Bader

Abstract

The suitability of the proposed monetary union among the members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) is examined. The authors identify the underlying structural shocks that these economies are subject to and assess the extent to which the shocks are symmetric. Alternatively, the authors test for common trends and common business cycles among the GCC economies. They find that while the transitory demand shocks are typically symmetric, the permanent supply shocks are asymmetric. Furthermore, they do not find synchronous long‐run and short‐run movements in output. Despite the progress that has been made in terms of integration, the findings indicate that the conditions for forming a GCC monetary union have not as yet been met.

Suggested Citation

  • Aamer S. Abu‐Qarn & Suleiman Abu‐Bader, 2008. "On the Optimality of a GCC Monetary Union: Structural VAR, Common Trends, and Common Cycles Evidence," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(5), pages 612-630, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:worlde:v:31:y:2008:i:5:p:612-630
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-9701.2008.01096.x
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    Cited by:

    1. Rosmy Jean Louis & Faruk Balli & Mohamed Osman, 2012. "On the feasibility of monetary union among Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries: does the symmetry of shocks extend to the non-oil sector?," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 36(2), pages 319-334, April.
    2. Magda Kandil & Mohamed Trabelsi, 2012. "Is the Announced Monetary Union in GCC Countries Feasible? A Multivariate Structural Var Approach," Middle East Development Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(1), pages 1250001-121, January.
    3. Ben Abdesslem, Amel, 2013. "L’union monétaire des pays du Conseil de coopération du golfe : viabilité et perspectives d’avenir," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 89(3), pages 191-206, Septembre.
    4. Rosmy Jean Louis & Faruk Balli & Mohamed Osman, 2012. "On the choice of an anchor for the GCC currency: does the symmetry of shocks extend to both the oil and the non-oil sectors?," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 9(1), pages 83-110, March.
    5. Weshah Razzak, "undated". "On the GCC Currency Union," API-Working Paper Series 0910, Arab Planning Institute - Kuwait, Information Center.
    6. Rosmy Jean Louis & Mohamed Osman & Faruk Balli, 2010. "Is the US Dollar a Suitable Anchor for the Newly Proposed GCC Currency?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(12), pages 1898-1922, December.
    7. Hem Basnet & Subhash Sharma, 2015. "Exchange rate movements and policy coordination in Latin America," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 39(4), pages 679-696, October.
    8. Willem H. Buiter, 2010. "Economic, Political and Institutional Prerequisites for Monetary Union Among the Members of the Gulf Cooperation Council," Chapters, in: Ronald MacDonald & Abdulrazak Al Faris (ed.), Currency Union and Exchange Rate Issues, chapter 3, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    9. Ahmed AlKholifey & Ali Alreshan, 2010. "GCC monetary union," IFC Bulletins chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Proceedings of the SARB/IFC seminar on "Economic and financial convergence en route to regional economic integration: experience, prospects and statis, volume 32, pages 17-51, Bank for International Settlements.
    10. Essahbi Essaadi, 2017. "The feasibility of currency union in Gulf Cooperation Council countries: A business cycle synchronisation view," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(10), pages 2153-2171, October.
    11. Murshed, Hasan & Nakibullah, Ashraf, 2015. "Price level and inflation in the GCC countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 239-252.
    12. Al-Abri, Almukhtar & Genc, Ismail H. & Naufal, George S, 2018. "The Impact of Government Spending on GDP in a Remitting Country," IZA Discussion Papers 11676, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    13. Stefan Eichler & Alexander Karmann, 2011. "Optimum Currency Areas in Emerging Market Regions: Evidence Based on the Symmetry of Economic Shocks," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 22(5), pages 935-954, November.
    14. Eric Pentecost & Paul Turner, 2010. "Demand and Supply Shocks in the Caribbean Economies: Implications for Monetary Union," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(10), pages 1325-1337, October.
    15. Etienne Farvaque & Norimichi Matsueda, 2010. "On the Sustainability of a Monetary Union under External Shocks: a Theoretical Result and Its Application to the Gulf Countries," Discussion Paper Series 66, School of Economics, Kwansei Gakuin University, revised Dec 2010.
    16. Adom, Assandé Désiré & Sharma, Subhash C. & Morshed, A.K.M. Mahbub, 2010. "Economic integration in Africa," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 245-253, August.
    17. Omotor, Douglason G. & Niringiye, Aggrey, 2011. "Optimum Currency Area and Shock Asymmetry: A Dynamic Analysis of the West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ)," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 71-82, September.
    18. Louis, Rosmy & Balli, Faruk & Osman, Mohammad, 2008. "Monetary Union Among Arab Gulf Cooperation Council (AGCC) Countries: Does the symmetry of shocks extend to the non-oil sector?," MPRA Paper 11611, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Ashraf Nakibullah, 2017. "State of Shocks Synchronization among Members of the GCC," Research in World Economy, Research in World Economy, Sciedu Press, vol. 8(1), pages 15-23, June.
    20. Abdulrazak Al Faris, 2010. "Currency Union in the GCC Countries: History, Prerequisites and Implications," Chapters, in: Ronald MacDonald & Abdulrazak Al Faris (ed.), Currency Union and Exchange Rate Issues, chapter 2, Edward Elgar Publishing.

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    JEL classification:

    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration

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