An Error Correction Analysis of Visitor Arrivals to the Bahamas
AbstractTourism is the major domestic export for many countries in the Caribbean region. Given this, the variables which influence tourism demand in this region, as well as accurate forecasts, can assist policy makers in their planning efforts and growth strategies. This study utilizes error correction models (ECMs) to analyze tourism demand in the Bahamas. Findings suggest that income and habit persistence/word of mouth advertising are the primary determinants of tourism demand in the Bahamas, while the cost of travel is generally insignificant. To further assess model reliability, forecasts of the ECMs are compared to random walk and random walk with drift benchmarks. The study finds that while the ECMs provide fairly reliable forecasts, their performances are not superior to those provided by random walk benchmarks.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 43064.
Date of creation: 11 Feb 2012
Date of revision:
Tourism; Error Correction Analysis; Forecasts; Bahamas;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- O54 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Latin America; Caribbean
- M21 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting - - Business Economics - - - Business Economics
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2012-12-15 (All new papers)
- NEP-FOR-2012-12-15 (Forecasting)
- NEP-TUR-2012-12-15 (Tourism Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Song, Haiyan & Witt, Stephen F. & Jensen, Thomas C., 2003. "Tourism forecasting: accuracy of alternative econometric models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 123-141.
- De Leon, Marycruz & Fullerton, Thomas M., Jr. & Kelley, Brian W., 2009. "Tolls, Exchange Rates, and Borderplex International Bridge Traffic," MPRA Paper 19861, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Peter C.B. Phillips, 1985.
"Understanding Spurious Regressions in Econometrics,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
757, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Phillips, P.C.B., 1986. "Understanding spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 311-340, December.
- Kulendran, N. & King, Maxwell L., 1997. "Forecasting international quarterly tourist flows using error-correction and time-series models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 319-327, September.
- Banerjee, Anindya & Dolado, Juan J. & Galbraith, John W. & Hendry, David, 1993. "Co-integration, Error Correction, and the Econometric Analysis of Non-Stationary Data," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198288107.
- Thomas M Fullerton Jr, 2005. "Borderplex Bridge and Air Econometric Forecast Accuracy," Urban/Regional 0501005, EconWPA.
- Granger, C. W. J., 1981. "Some properties of time series data and their use in econometric model specification," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 121-130, May.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ekkehart Schlicht).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.