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Prediction Markets, Social Media and Information Efficiency

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  • Leighton Vaughan Williams
  • J. James Reade

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  • Leighton Vaughan Williams & J. James Reade, 2016. "Prediction Markets, Social Media and Information Efficiency," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 69(3), pages 518-556, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:kyklos:v:69:y:2016:i:3:p:518-556
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/kykl.12119
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    5. Fama, Eugene F., 1998. "Market efficiency, long-term returns, and behavioral finance," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 283-306, September.
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    7. Tushar Rao & Saket Srivastava, 2012. "Modeling Movements in Oil, Gold, Forex and Market Indices using Search Volume Index and Twitter Sentiments," Papers 1212.1037, arXiv.org.
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    14. Dietmar Janetzko, 2014. "Predictive modeling in turbulent times – What Twitter reveals about the EUR/USD exchange rate," Netnomics, Springer, vol. 15(2), pages 69-106, September.
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    19. James Reade & Genaro Sucarrat, 2016. "General-to-Specific (GETS) Modelling And Indicator Saturation With The R Package Gets," Economics Series Working Papers 794, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    20. Timm O. Sprenger & Philipp G. Sandner & Andranik Tumasjan & Isabell M. Welpe, 2014. "News or Noise? Using Twitter to Identify and Understand Company-specific News Flow," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(7-8), pages 791-830, September.
    21. Karen Croxson & J. James Reade, 2014. "Information and Efficiency: Goal Arrival in Soccer Betting," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 124(575), pages 62-91, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Tai, Chung-Ching & Lin, Hung-Wen & Chie, Bin-Tzong & Tung, Chen-Yuan, 2019. "Predicting the failures of prediction markets: A procedure of decision making using classification models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 297-312.
    2. Petropoulos, Fotios & Apiletti, Daniele & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios & Babai, Mohamed Zied & Barrow, Devon K. & Ben Taieb, Souhaib & Bergmeir, Christoph & Bessa, Ricardo J. & Bijak, Jakub & Boylan, Joh, 2022. "Forecasting: theory and practice," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 705-871.
      • Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    3. Felix Pretis, 2022. "Does a Carbon Tax Reduce CO2 Emissions? Evidence from British Columbia," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 83(1), pages 115-144, September.
    4. Philip ME Garboden, 2019. "Sources and Types of Big Data for Macroeconomic Forecasting," Working Papers 2019-3, University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization, University of Hawaii at Manoa.
    5. Merz, Oliver & Flepp, Raphael & Franck, Egon, 2021. "Sonic Thunder vs. Brian the Snail: Are people affected by uninformative racehorse names?," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    6. Benesch, Christine & Loretz, Simon & Stadelmann, David & Thomas, Tobias, 2019. "Media coverage and immigration worries: Econometric evidence," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 52-67.
    7. Oasis Kodila-Tedika, 2021. "Natural resource governance: does social media matter?," Mineral Economics, Springer;Raw Materials Group (RMG);Luleå University of Technology, vol. 34(1), pages 127-140, April.
    8. Lohrmann, Christoph & Luukka, Pasi, 2019. "Classification of intraday S&P500 returns with a Random Forest," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 390-407.
    9. Alasdair Brown & Dooruj Rambaccussing & J. James Reade & Giambattista Rossi, 2018. "Forecasting With Social Media: Evidence From Tweets On Soccer Matches," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 56(3), pages 1748-1763, July.
    10. Brown, Alasdair & Reade, J. James & Vaughan Williams, Leighton, 2019. "When are prediction market prices most informative?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 420-428.

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