Regional aggregation in forecasting: an application to the Federal Reserve's Eighth District
AbstractHernández-Murillo and Owyang (2006) showed that accounting for spatial correlations in regional data can improve forecasts of national employment. This paper considers whether the predictive advantage of disaggregate models remains when forecasting subnational data. The authors conduct horse races among several forecasting models in which the objective is to forecast regional- or state-level employment. For some models, the objective is to forecast using the sum of further disaggregated employment (i.e., forecasts of metropolitan statistical area (MSA)-level data are summed to yield state-level forecasts). The authors find that the spatial relationships between states have sufficient predictive content to overcome small increases in the number of estimated parameters when forecasting regional-level data; this is not always true when forecasting state- and regional-level data using the sum of MSA-level forecasts.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in its journal Regional Economic Development.
Volume (Year): (2008)
Issue (Month): Oct ()
Other versions of this item:
- Kristie M. Engemann & Rubén Hernández-Murillo & Michael T. Owyang, 2011. "Regional aggregation in forecasting: an application to the Federal Reserve’s Eighth District," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 207-222.
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Lesage, James P & Magura, Michael, 1990. "Using Bayesian Techniques for Data Pooling in Regional Payroll Forecasting," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 8(1), pages 127-35, January.
- Conley, Timothy G. & Molinari, Francesca, 2005.
"Spatial Correlation Robust Inference with Errors in Location or Distance,"
05-12, Cornell University, Center for Analytic Economics.
- Conley, Timothy G. & Molinari, Francesca, 2007. "Spatial correlation robust inference with errors in location or distance," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 140(1), pages 76-96, September.
- Timothy Conley & Francesca Molinari, 2005. "Spatial correlation robust inference with Errors in Location or Distance," CeMMAP working papers CWP10/05, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
- Michael T. Owyang & Jeremy M. Piger & Howard J. Wall, 2007.
"A state-level analysis of the Great Moderation,"
2007-003, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Hendry, David F & Hubrich, Kirstin, 2006.
"Forecasting Economic Aggregates by Disaggregates,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
5485, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Rubén Hernández-Murillo & Michael T. Owyang, 2004.
"The information content of regional employment data for forecasting aggregate conditions,"
2004-005, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Hernandez-Murillo, Ruben & Owyang, Michael T., 2006. "The information content of regional employment data for forecasting aggregate conditions," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 90(3), pages 335-339, March.
- Michael T. Owyang & Jeremy M. Piger & Howard J. Wall & Christopher H. Wheeler, 2007.
"The economic performance of cities: a Markov-switching approach,"
2006-056, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Owyang, Michael T. & Piger, Jeremy M. & Wall, Howard J. & Wheeler, Christopher H., 2008. "The economic performance of cities: A Markov-switching approach," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(3), pages 538-550, November.
- Michael T. Owyang & Jeremy Piger & Howard J. Wall, 2005.
"Business Cycle Phases in U.S. States,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics,
MIT Press, vol. 87(4), pages 604-616, November.
- Giacomini, Raffaella & Granger, Clive W.J., 2001.
"Aggregationn of Space-Time Processes,"
University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series
qt77f76455, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Diane Rosenberger).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.