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The Transition From Hyperinflation To Price Stability: Further Evidence

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  • SIKLOS, P.L.

Abstract

This note provides an explanation for the presence of inflation Granger causing money growth after the end of the Hungarian hyperinflation of 1945-46 reported by Gail E. Makinen and G. Thomas Woodward (1988). Using the framework introduced by Thomas J. Sargent and Neil Wallace (1981), it is shown that following the Hungarian hyperinflation, as in all the other cases considered by Makinen and Woodward, inflation and money growth are not causally related to each other once the Granger-Sims tests are conducted conditional on debt growth.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Wilfrid Laurier University, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 89131.

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Length: 13 pages
Date of creation: 1989
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wlu:wpaper:89131

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Keywords: inflation ; prices ; fiscal policy ; money ; monetary policy;

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References

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  1. Evans, Paul, 1978. "Time-Series Analysis of the German Hyperinflation," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 19(1), pages 195-209, February.
  2. Nelson, Charles R. & Plosser, Charles I., 1982. "Trends and random walks in macroeconmic time series : Some evidence and implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 139-162.
  3. Gail E. Makinen & G. Thomas Woodward, 1988. "The Transition from Hyperinflation to Stability: Some Evidence," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 14(1), pages 19-26, Jan-Mar.
  4. Cooley, Thomas F. & Leroy, Stephen F., 1985. "Atheoretical macroeconometrics: A critique," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 283-308, November.
  5. Hendry, David F & Mizon, Grayham E, 1978. "Serial Correlation as a Convenient Simplification, not a Nuisance: A Comment on a Study of the Demand for Money by the Bank of England," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 88(351), pages 549-63, September.
  6. Raj, Baldev & Siklos, Pierre L, 1986. "The Role of Fiscal Policy in the St. Louis Model: An Evaluation and Some New Evidence," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 1(3), pages 287-94, July.
  7. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June.
  8. Siklos, P.L., 1990. "Hyperinflation: Their Origins, Development And Termination," Working Papers 90135, Wilfrid Laurier University, Department of Economics.
  9. Sargent, Thomas J & Wallace, Neil, 1973. "Rational Expectations and the Dynamics of Hyperinflation," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 14(2), pages 328-50, June.
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