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Model simplification and variable selection: A replication of the UK inflation model by Hendry (2001)

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  • Marcin Błażejowski
  • Paweł Kufel
  • Jacek Kwiatkowski

Abstract

In this paper, we revisit the well‐known UK inflation model by Hendry (Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2001, 16, 255–275. We replicate the results in a narrow sense using the gretl and PcGive programs. In a wide sense, we extend the study of model uncertainty using the Bayesian averaging of classical estimates (BACE) approach as an automatic model reduction strategy. We consider three different specifications to compare BACE variable selection with Hendry's reduction. We find that the BACE method can recover the path of nontrivial reduction strategy.

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  • Marcin Błażejowski & Paweł Kufel & Jacek Kwiatkowski, 2020. "Model simplification and variable selection: A replication of the UK inflation model by Hendry (2001)," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(5), pages 645-652, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:japmet:v:35:y:2020:i:5:p:645-652
    DOI: 10.1002/jae.2760
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ley, Eduardo & Steel, Mark F.J., 2012. "Mixtures of g-priors for Bayesian model averaging with economic applications," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 171(2), pages 251-266.
    2. Gernot Doppelhofer & Melvyn Weeks, 2009. "Jointness of growth determinants," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(2), pages 209-244, March.
    3. David F. Hendry, 2001. "Modelling UK inflation, 1875-1991," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 255-275.
    4. Koop,Gary & Poirier,Dale J. & Tobias,Justin L., 2007. "Bayesian Econometric Methods," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521671736, June.
    5. Fernandez, Carmen & Ley, Eduardo & Steel, Mark F. J., 2001. "Benchmark priors for Bayesian model averaging," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 100(2), pages 381-427, February.
    6. Chan,Joshua & Koop,Gary & Poirier,Dale J. & Tobias,Justin L., 2019. "Bayesian Econometric Methods," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781108423380.
    7. Ley, Eduardo & Steel, Mark F.J., 2007. "Jointness in Bayesian variable selection with applications to growth regression," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 476-493, September.
    8. Xavier Sala-I-Martin & Gernot Doppelhofer & Ronald I. Miller, 2004. "Determinants of Long-Term Growth: A Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimates (BACE) Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(4), pages 813-835, September.
    9. Castle, Jennifer & Shephard, Neil (ed.), 2009. "The Methodology and Practice of Econometrics: A Festschrift in Honour of David F. Hendry," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199237197, Decembrie.
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    Cited by:

    1. Atif Maqbool Khan & Jacek Kwiatkowski & Magdalena Osińska & Marcin Błażejowski, 2021. "Factors of Renewable Energy Consumption in the European Countries—The Bayesian Averaging Classical Estimates Approach," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(22), pages 1-24, November.
    2. Mark F. J. Steel, 2020. "Model Averaging and Its Use in Economics," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 58(3), pages 644-719, September.
    3. Magdalena Osinska & Marcin Blazejowski & Pawel Kufel & Tadeusz Kufel & Jacek Kwiatkowski, 2020. "Narrow Money Demand in Indonesia and in Other Transitional Economies – Model Selection and Forecasting," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(4), pages 1291-1311.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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    1. Model simplification and variable selection: A replication of the UK inflation model by Hendry (2001) (Journal of Applied Econometrics 2020) in ReplicationWiki

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