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Does Trust Promote Growth?

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Abstract

We examine the effect of generalized trust on long-term economic growth. Unlike in previous studies, we use Bayesian model averaging to deal rigorously with model uncertainty and attendant omitted variable bias. In addition, we address endogeneity and assess whether the effect of trust on growth is causal. Examining more than forty regressors for nearly fifty countries, we show that trust exerts a positive effect on long-term growth and, based on the posterior inclusion probabilities, suggest that trust is an important driver of long-term growth. Our results also show that trust is key for growth in countries with a weak rule of law.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies in its series Working Papers IES with number 2012/09.

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Length: 33pages
Date of creation: Apr 2012
Date of revision: Apr 2012
Handle: RePEc:fau:wpaper:wp2012_09

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Keywords: trust; economic growth; Bayesian model averaging;

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Cited by:
  1. Blanco, Luisa R., 2013. "The impact of crime on trust in institutions in Mexico," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 38-55.
  2. Jesús Peiró-Palomino & Emili Tortosa-Ausina, 2012. "Can trust effects on development be generalized? A response by quantile," Working Papers 2012/16, Economics Department, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón (Spain).

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