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Macroeconomic Adjustment and Foreign Trade of Centrally Planned Economies

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  • John Burkett
  • Richard Portes
  • David Winter

Abstract

This empirical study stresses the underlying macroeconomic forces which determine foreign trade flows in CPEs. The general specification includes a planners' demand equation for the volume of imports, a planners' supply equation for the volume of exports, and a rest-of-world demand equation for the export price level. The planners' behavioural equations include variables for activity levels, trade balance constraints, prices, and domestic excess demand. The import price is exogenous. This simultaneous equation model is estimated on annual data from the mid-1950s to the mid-1970s, for Czechoslovakia, the GDR, Hungary, and Poland. Maximum likelihood estimation in a nested hypothesis testing framework allows selection of restricted versions of the general model for each country. Estimated price elasticities accord with the underlying theory, and the excess demand variables perform well.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 0736.

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Date of creation: Aug 1981
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:0736

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  1. Hendry, David F. & Srba, Frank, 1980. "Autoreg: a computer program library for dynamic econometric models with autoregressive errors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 85-102, January.
  2. Portes, Richard, 1981. "Macroeconomic Equilibrium and Disequilibrium in Centrally Planned Economies," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, Western Economic Association International, vol. 19(4), pages 559-78, October.
  3. Richard Portes, 1979. "Effets de la crise sur les pays de l'Est," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 30(6), pages 1067-1114.
  4. Portes, Richard, 1979. "Internal and external balance in a centrally planned economy," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 325-345, December.
  5. Portes, Richard & Winter, David, 1980. "Disequilibrium Estimates for Consumption Goods Markets in Centrally Planned Economies," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(1), pages 137-59, January.
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Cited by:
  1. Richard Portes, 1981. "Central Planning and Monetarism: Fellow Travelers?," NBER Working Papers 0782, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Tulpule, Vivek & Kottege, Jayantha & Tie, Graeme, 1992. "Soviet grain import demand," 1992 Conference (36th), February 10-13, 1992, Canberra, Australia, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society 147335, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.

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