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The Theory and Measurement of Macroeconomic Disequilibrium in Centrally Planned Economies

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  • Richard Portes

Abstract

The paper considers issues in recent research on macroeconomic equilibrium in centrally planned economies. I defend the explicit aggregative , macroeconomic approach in theory, institutional relationships and measurement. It has offered a fresh, coherent framework for analysis of many CPE phenomena, opened up a range of possibilities for empirical investigation, and generated several important spinoffs: work of planners' behavior, insights into CPE policy problems of the 1970s and early 1980s, which centred on macroeconomic equilibrium and threats to it; and some developments in market economy macro theory and econometrics. The quantity-rationing macro model and disequilibrium econometrics give a more useful as well as a more nuanced view of macroeconomic reality in CPEs than the conventional wisdom characterizing them as perpetual "shortage economies".

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 1875.

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Date of creation: Mar 1986
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Publication status: published as From Models of Disequilibrium and Shortage in Centrally Planned Economies,edited by C. Davis and W. Charemza, pp. 27-47. London: Chapman and Hall Ltd., 1989.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:1875

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References

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  1. Gourieroux, Christian & Laroque, Guy, 1985. "The Aggregation of Commodities in Quantity Rationing Models," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 26(3), pages 681-99, October.
  2. Benassy, Jean-Pascal, 1975. "Neo-Keynesian Disequilibrium Theory in a Monetary Economy," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(4), pages 503-23, October.
  3. Barro, Robert J & Grossman, Herschel I, 1971. "A General Disequilibrium Model of Income and Employment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 61(1), pages 82-93, March.
  4. Hare, Paul G., 1982. "Economics of shortage and non-price control," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(4), pages 406-425, December.
  5. Portes, Richard, 1981. "Macroeconomic Equilibrium and Disequilibrium in Centrally Planned Economies," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, Western Economic Association International, vol. 19(4), pages 559-78, October.
  6. Reconciliation, A & Brada, Josef C., 1982. "Real and monetary approaches to foreign trade adjustment mechanisms in centrally planned economies," European Economic Review, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 229-244.
  7. Deaton,Angus & Muellbauer,John, 1980. "Economics and Consumer Behavior," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521296762.
  8. Portes, Richard, 1977. "The Control of Inflation: Lessons from East European Experience," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 44(174), pages 109-29, May.
  9. Pickersgill, Joyce E, 1976. "Soviet Household Saving Behavior," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 58(2), pages 139-47, May.
  10. Thomas A. Wolf, 1985. "Economic Stabilization in Planned Economies: Toward an Analytical Framework (La stabilisation économique dans les économies planifiées: recherche d'un cadre d'analyse) (Estabilización econ," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 32(1), pages 78-131, March.
  11. Charemza, Wojciech & Quandt, Richard E, 1982. "Models and Estimation of Disequilibrium for Centrally Planned Economies," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 49(1), pages 109-16, January.
  12. Gardner Roy, 1979. "Repressed inflation in the soviet union : a temporary equilibrium approach," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange) 7918, CEPREMAP.
  13. Weinrich, G., 1984. "On the size of disequilibrium in a equilibrium with quantity rationing," CORE Discussion Papers, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE) 1984018, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  14. Nissanke, Machiko, 1979. "The Disequilibrium Model in a Controlled Economy: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 69(4), pages 726-32, September.
  15. Portes, Richard & Winter, David, 1980. "Disequilibrium Estimates for Consumption Goods Markets in Centrally Planned Economies," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(1), pages 137-59, January.
  16. Portes, Richard & Winter, David, 1977. "The supply of consumption goods in centrally planned economies," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(4), pages 351-365, December.
  17. Portes, Richard & Winter, David, 1978. "The Demand for Money and for Consumption Goods in Centrally Planned Economies," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 60(1), pages 8-18, February.
  18. Pryor, Frederic L, 1977. "Some Costs and Benefits of Markets: An Empirical Study," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, MIT Press, vol. 91(1), pages 81-102, February.
  19. Grandmont, Jean-Michel & Laroque, Guy, 1976. "On Temporary Keynesian Equilibria," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(1), pages 53-67, February.
  20. Howard, David H, 1976. "The Disequilibrium Model in a Controlled Economy: An Empirical Test of the Barro-Grossman Model," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 66(5), pages 871-79, December.
  21. Katz, Barbara Goody, 1979. "The Disequilibrium Model in a Controlled Economy: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 69(4), pages 721-25, September.
  22. Muellbauer, John & Portes, Richard, 1978. "Macroeconomic Models with Quantity Rationing," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, Royal Economic Society, vol. 88(352), pages 788-821, December.
  23. Barro, Robert J & Grossman, Herschel I, 1974. "Suppressed Inflation and the Supply Multiplier," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(1), pages 87-104, January.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Erwin Nijsse & Elmer Sterken,, 1996. "Shortages, interest rates, and money demand in Poland, 1969-1995," Working Papers, Centre for Economic Research, University of Groningen and University of Twente 25, Centre for Economic Research, University of Groningen and University of Twente.
  2. Mokhtari, M., 1996. "Savings under quantity constraints: what can we learn from former Soviet families?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 561-582, October.
  3. Daianu, Daniel & Albu, Lucian-Liviu, 1996. "Strain and the inflation - unemployment relationship: a conceptual and empirical investigation," MPRA Paper 14017, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Richard Portes & Anita Santorum, 1987. "Money and the Consumption Goods Market in China," NBER Working Papers 2143, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Tsang, Shu-ki & Ma, Yue, 1997. "Simulating the impact of foreign capital in an open-economy macroeconomic model of China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 435-478, July.
  6. Solimano, Andres, 1990. "Macroeconomic adjustment, stabilization, and growth in reforming socialist economies : analytical and policy issues," Policy Research Working Paper Series 399, The World Bank.
  7. Guisan, Maria-Carmen & Aguayo, Eva & Carballas, David, 2004. "Economic Growth and Cycles in Poland, Hungary, Czech Republic, Slovakia and Slovenia: A comparison with Spain, Austria and other EU countries, 1950-2002," Economic Development, University of Santiago de Compostela. Faculty of Economics and Business. Econometrics. 79, University of Santiago de Compostela. Faculty of Economics and Business. Econometrics..
  8. Kim, Byung Yeon, 1997. " Soviet Household Saving Function," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, Springer, vol. 30(2-3), pages 181-203.
  9. Daianu, Daniel & Albu, Lucian Liviu, 2008. "Strain and Inflation-Unemployment Relationship: A conceptual and empirical investigation," Working Papers of Institute for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting 081201, Institute for Economic Forecasting.
  10. Salima Hamouche, 1993. "Contribution à l'étude du déséquilibre sur le marché algérien des biens de consommation," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, Programme National Persée, vol. 108(2), pages 63-74.
  11. Denizer, Cevdet & Wolf, Holger C., 2000. "The savings collapse during the transition in Eastern Europe," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2419, The World Bank.
  12. E. Dietzenbacher & E. Harrison & J. Engwerda & H. Lorenz & G. Klepper & M. Rauscher & R. Neck & J. Hagen, 1992. "Book reviews," Journal of Economics, Springer, Springer, vol. 55(3), pages 309-327, October.
    • M. Shubik & G. Laan & I. Kubin & E. Dietzenbacher & K. Spremann & U. Schweizer & K. Milford & H. Niida & F. Butschek & K. Rothschild, 1991. "Book reviews," Journal of Economics, Springer, Springer, vol. 53(3), pages 299-324, October.
    • J. Engwerda & G. Feichtinger & A. Sandmo & B. Fritsch & K. Laski & L. Podkaminer & E. Deutsch & G. Goldrian, 1990. "Book reviews," Journal of Economics, Springer, Springer, vol. 52(2), pages 191-208, June.
  13. Dic Lo & Guicai Li & Yingquan Jiang, 2011. "Financial governance and economic development: making sense of the Chinese experience," PSL Quarterly Review, Economia civile, Economia civile, vol. 64(258), pages 267-286.

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