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A Stochastic Approach to Disequilibrium Macroeconomics

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  • Seppo Honkapohja
  • Takatoshi Ito

Abstract

In this paper, our aim is to develop an alternative approach to analyzing a macroeconomic model where markets do not clear. Earlier approaches have had difficulties in interpreting effective demand, a key concept in disequilibrium macroeconomics. We propose a new definition of effective demand similar to that of Svensson, Gale, and Green. Given the states of the markets, there is in general uncertainty about the amount of trades individuals can complete. Considering this uncertainty, each individual has to make binding trade offers, i.e., effective demands, a fraction of which will be actually transacted. Using the newly-defined effective demand, we define the rationing equilibrium as a fixed point of disequilibrium signals. We analyze various regimes of rationing equilibria. The most startling conclusion is the multiplicity of equilibria: (1) given wages and prices, there may exist more than one type of equilibrium and (ii) even at Wairasian prices there may exist non-Walrasian equilibria, and these are usually stable with respect to a quantity-adjustment mechanism while the Wairasian equilibrium is unstable, The comparative-static properties of policy we also considered, and they are comparable to those of the earlier approach.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Technical Working Papers with number 0001.

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Date of creation: Sep 1979
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Publication status: published as Honkapohja, Seppo and Takatoshi Ito. "On Macroeconomic Equilibrium with Stochastic Rationing." Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Vol. 87, No. 1, 1985, pp. 66-88.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberte:0001

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  1. Grossman, Herschel I, 1971. "Money, Interest, and Prices in Market Disequilibrium," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 79(5), pages 943-61, Sept.-Oct.
  2. Hildenbrand, Kurt & Hildenbrand, Werner, 1978. "On Keynesian equilibria with unemployment and quantity rationing," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 255-277, August.
  3. Fischer, Stanley, 1977. "Long-Term Contracts, Rational Expectations, and the Optimal Money Supply Rule," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(1), pages 191-205, February.
  4. Foley, Duncan K & Hellwig, Martin F, 1975. "Asset Management with Trading Uncertainty," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(3), pages 327-46, July.
  5. Gourieroux, C & Laffont, J-J & Monfort, A, 1980. "Disequilibrium Econometrics in Simultaneous Equations Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 75-96, January.
  6. Barro, Robert J & Grossman, Herschel I, 1971. "A General Disequilibrium Model of Income and Employment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 61(1), pages 82-93, March.
  7. Rothschild, Michael, 1973. "Models of Market Organization with Imperfect Information: A Survey," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(6), pages 1283-1308, Nov.-Dec..
  8. Steven C. Salop, 1978. "Rational expectations and multiple equilibria: love, faith, money and underemployment," Special Studies Papers 106, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  9. Benassy, Jean-Pascal, 1975. "Neo-Keynesian Disequilibrium Theory in a Monetary Economy," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(4), pages 503-23, October.
  10. Bohm, Volker, 1978. "Disequilibrium dynamics in a simple macroeconomic model," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 179-199, April.
  11. C. Gourieroux & Jean-Jacques Laffont & A. Monfort, 1979. "Coherency Conditions In Simultaneous Linear Equation Models With Endogenous Switching Regimes," NBER Working Papers 0343, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Dreze, Jacques H, 1975. "Existence of an Exchange Equilibrium under Price Rigidities," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 16(2), pages 301-20, June.
  13. Barro,Robert J. & Grossman,Herschel I., 2008. "Money Employment and Inflation," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521068659, April.
  14. Barro, Robert J & Grossman, Herschel I, 1974. "Suppressed Inflation and the Supply Multiplier," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(1), pages 87-104, January.
  15. Sargent, Thomas J & Wallace, Neil, 1975. ""Rational" Expectations, the Optimal Monetary Instrument, and the Optimal Money Supply Rule," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 83(2), pages 241-54, April.
  16. Muellbauer, John & Portes, Richard, 1978. "Macroeconomic Models with Quantity Rationing," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 88(352), pages 788-821, December.
  17. Martin Neil Baily, 1978. "Stabilization Policy and Private Economic Behavior," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 9(1), pages 11-60.
  18. Svensson, Lars E O, 1981. " Effective Demand in a Sequence of Markets," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 83(1), pages 1-21.
  19. Seppo Honkapohja & Takatoshi Ito, 1979. "Non-Trivial Equilibrium in an Economy With Stochastic Rationing," NBER Working Papers 0322, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  20. Phelps, Edmund S & Taylor, John B, 1977. "Stabilizing Powers of Monetary Policy under Rational Expectations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(1), pages 163-90, February.
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