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Understanding Indonesia’S City-Level Consumer Price Formation: Implications For Price Stability

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  • Paresh Kumar Narayan

    (Deakin University)

Abstract

Using the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data of 82 Indonesian cities, we propose the hypothesis of heterogeneity in the cities’ contribution to the aggregate Indonesian CPI. Using a price discovery model fitted to monthly data, we discover that (1) of the 23 cities in the province of Sumatera, five contribute 44% and nine contribute 66.7% to price changes, and (2) of the 26 cities in Java, four alone contribute 41.6% to price changes. Even in smaller provinces, such as Bali and Nusa Tenggara, one city alone dominates the change in aggregate CPI. From these results, we draw implications for maintaining price stability.

Suggested Citation

  • Paresh Kumar Narayan, 2019. "Understanding Indonesia’S City-Level Consumer Price Formation: Implications For Price Stability," Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, Bank Indonesia, vol. 22(4), pages 405-422, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:idn:journl:v:22:y:2019:i:4a:p:405-422
    DOI: https://doi.org/10.21098/bemp.v22i4.1239
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Joakim Westerlund & Simon Reese & Paresh Narayan, 2017. "A Factor Analytical Approach to Price Discovery," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 79(3), pages 366-394, June.
    2. Paresh Kumar Narayan & Seema Narayan & Sagarika Mishra, 2011. "Do Remittances Induce Inflation? Fresh Evidence from Developing Countries," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 77(4), pages 914-933, April.
    3. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Sharma, Susan Sunila & Thuraisamy, Kannan Sivananthan & Westerlund, Joakim, 2018. "Some preliminary evidence of price discovery in Islamic banks," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 107-122.
    4. Westelius, Niklas J., 2005. "Discretionary monetary policy and inflation persistence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 477-496, March.
    5. Lutz Kilian, 2008. "A Comparison of the Effects of Exogenous Oil Supply Shocks on Output and Inflation in the G7 Countries," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 6(1), pages 78-121, March.
    6. Syed Basher & Joakim Westerlund, 2007. "Is there really a unit root in the inflation rate? More evidence from panel data models," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(3), pages 161-164.
    7. David F. Hendry, 2001. "Modelling UK inflation, 1875-1991," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 255-275.
    8. Culver, Sarah E & Papell, David H, 1997. "Is There a Unit Root in the Inflation Rate? Evidence from Sequential Break and Panel Data Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(4), pages 435-444, July-Aug..
    9. Paresh Kumar Narayan & Stephan Popp, 2013. "Size and power properties of structural break unit root tests," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(6), pages 721-728, February.
    10. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Phan, Dinh Hoang Bach & Thuraisamy, Kannan & Westerlund, Joakim, 2016. "Price discovery and asset pricing," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 40(PA), pages 224-235.
    11. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Sharma, Susan Sunila & Thuraisamy, Kannan Sivananthan, 2014. "An analysis of price discovery from panel data models of CDS and equity returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 167-177.
    12. Bhushan Praveen Jangam & Vaseem Akram, 2019. "Do Prices Converge Among Indonesian Cities? An Empirical Analysis," Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, Bank Indonesia, vol. 22(3), pages 1-24.
    13. Alba, Joseph D. & Papell, David H., 1998. "Exchange rate determination and inflation in Southeast Asian countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 421-437, April.
    14. Paresh Kumar Narayan & Stephan Popp, 2010. "A new unit root test with two structural breaks in level and slope at unknown time," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(9), pages 1425-1438.
    15. Susan Sunila Sharma, 2019. "WHICH VARIABLES PREDICT INDONESIA’s INFLATION?," Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, Bank Indonesia, vol. 22(1), pages 1-16.
    16. Hasbrouck, Joel, 1995. "One Security, Many Markets: Determining the Contributions to Price Discovery," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(4), pages 1175-1199, September.
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    1. Garg, Bhavesh & Prabheesh, K.P., 2021. "Testing the intertemporal sustainability of current account in the presence of endogenous structural breaks: Evidence from the top deficit countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 365-379.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Consumer Price Index; Cities; Price Discovery; Bank Indonesia;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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