Reformulating Empirical Macroeconomic Modelling
AbstractThe policy implications of estimated macro-econometric systems depend on the formulations of their equations, the methodology of empirical model selection and evaluation, the techniques of policy analysis, and their forecast performance. Drawing on recent results in the theory of forecasting, we question the role of "rational expectations"; criticize a common approach to testing economic theories; show that impulse-response methods of evaluating policy are seriously flawed; and question the mechanistic derivation of forecasts from econometric systems. In their place, we propose that expectations should be treated as instrumental to agents' decisions; discuss a powerful new approach to the empirical modelling of econometric relationships; offer viable alternatives to studying policy implications; and note modifications to forecasting devices that can enhance their robustness to unanticipated structural breaks. Copyright 2000 by Oxford University Press.
Download InfoTo our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
1. Check below under "Related research" whether another version of this item is available online.
2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Oxford University Press in its journal Oxford Review of Economic Policy.
Volume (Year): 16 (2000)
Issue (Month): 4 (Winter)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://oxrep.oupjournals.org/
You can help add them by filling out this form.
CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- Janine Aron & John Muellbauer, 2002.
"Interest rate effects on output: evidence from a GDP forecasting model for South Africa,"
CSAE Working Paper Series
2002-04, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
- Janine Aron & John Muellbauer, 2002. "Interest Rate Effects on Output: Evidence from a GDP Forecasting Model for South Africa," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 49(Special i), pages 185-213.
- Janine Aron & John Muellbauer, 2002. "Interest Rate Effects on Output: Evidence from a GDP Forecasting Model for South Africa," Economics Series Working Papers WPS/2002-04, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
- Aron, Janine & Muellbauer, John, 2002. "Interest Rate Effects on Output: Evidence from a GDP Forecasting Model for South Africa," CEPR Discussion Papers 3595, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Goyal, Ashima, 2002. "Coordinating monetary and fiscal policies: a role for rules?," MPRA Paper 29200, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Christopher Allsopp, 2002. "Macroeconomic Policy Rules in Theory and in Practice," Discussion Papers 10, Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England.
- Amit Kara & Edward Nelson, 2004.
"International Evidence on the Stability of the Optimizing IS Equation,"
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics,
Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 66(s1), pages 687-712, 09.
- Amit Kara & Edward Nelson, 2004. "International evidence on the stability of the optimizing IS equation," Working Papers 2003-020, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Oxford University Press) or (Christopher F. Baum).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.