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Rational Expectations in Price Setting. Tests Based on Norwegian Export Prices

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  • Ingvild Svendsen

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    (Statistics Norway)

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    Abstract

    This paper uses imperfect competition as a basis for modelling the export price for an aggregated commodity produced by the Norwegian private mainland economy. The long run solution is analysed using a cointegration technique. The dynamics are modelled according to two different approaches; a backward looking error correction model and a forward looking model where rational expectations are assumed. The dynamic structure of the forward looking model is derived from a linear quadratic adjustment cost function under rational expectations, but the empirical results do not support this specification. We cannot reject super-exogeneity to be present in the backward looking error correction model. The empirical evidence are thus not consistent with rational expectations.

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    File URL: http://www.ssb.no/a/publikasjoner/pdf/DP/dp226.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Research Department of Statistics Norway in its series Discussion Papers with number 226.

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    Date of creation: Aug 1998
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    Handle: RePEc:ssb:dispap:226

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    Related research

    Keywords: Export price; Imperfect competition; LQAC models; ECM; Cointegration; Rational expectation; Super exogeneity;

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    1. Urbain, J-P., 1991. "On Weak Exogeneity in Error Correction Models," Papers 9103, Liege - Centre de Recherches Economiques et Demographiques.
    2. Campbell, John Y & Shiller, Robert J, 1987. "Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(5), pages 1062-88, October.
    3. Nickell, Stephen, 1984. "An Investigation of the Determinants of Manufacturing Employment in the United Kingdom," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 51(4), pages 529-57, October.
    4. Ingvild Svendsen, 1995. "Forward- and Backward Looking Models for Norwegian Export Prices," Discussion Papers 152, Research Department of Statistics Norway.
    5. Callen, T S & Hall, S G & Henry, S G B, 1990. "Manufacturing Stocks: Expectations, Risk and Co-integration," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 100(402), pages 756-72, September.
    6. Engle, Robert F. & Hendry, David F., 1993. "Testing superexogeneity and invariance in regression models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 56(1-2), pages 119-139, March.
    7. Andrew C. Harvey, 1990. "The Econometric Analysis of Time Series, 2nd Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 2, volume 1, number 026208189x, December.
    8. Simon Burgess, 1991. "Nonlinear Dynamics in a Structural Model of Employment," CEP Discussion Papers dp0037, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    9. Davidson, James E H, et al, 1978. "Econometric Modelling of the Aggregate Time-Series Relationship between Consumers' Expenditure and Income in the United Kingdom," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 88(352), pages 661-92, December.
    10. Cuthbertson, Keith & Taylor, Mark P, 1992. "A Comparison of the Rational Expectations and the General-to-Specific Approaches to Modelling the Demand for M1," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 60(1), pages 1-22, March.
    11. Engsted, Tom & Haldrup, Niels, 1994. "The Linear Quadratic Adjustment Cost Model and the Demand for Labour," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(S), pages S145-59, Suppl. De.
    12. Muscatelli, V A, 1989. "A Comparison of the 'Rational Expectations' and 'General-to-Specific' Approaches to Modelling the Demand for M1," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 51(4), pages 353-75, November.
    13. Price, Simon, 1992. "Forward Looking Price Setting in UK Manufacturing," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 102(412), pages 497-505, May.
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