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The Cowles Commission Approach, Real Business Cycle Theories, and New Keynesian Economics

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  • Ray C. Fair

Abstract

The Cowles Commission approach is reviewed and compared to the approaches of real business cycle (RBC) theorists and new Keynesian economists. It is argued that RBC models are not tested in a serious enough way and that the new Keynesian literature is not empirical enough for testing even to be a serious possibility. Macroeconomics seems to be moving away from its traditional empirical basis, which is sad. This paper argues for returning to the path that was abandoned by most macroeconomists around 1970, namely the specification and testing of structural macroeconometric models.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 3990.

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Date of creation: Feb 1992
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Publication status: published as The Business Cycles: Theories and Evidence, (Proceedings of the Sixteenth Annual Economic Policy Conference of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis), edited by Michael T. Belognia and Michelle R. Garfinkel, pp. 133-147, Norwell, MA: Kluwer Academic Publishers, 1992
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:3990

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  1. Russell Davidson & James G. MacKinnon, 1981. "Tests for Model Specification in the Presence of Alternative Hypotheses: Some Further Results," Working Papers 430, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  2. Krane, Spencer D & Braun, Stephen N, 1991. "Production Smoothing Evidence from Physical-Product Data," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(3), pages 558-81, June.
  3. Sumru Altug, 1986. "Time to build and aggregate fluctuations: some new evidence," Working Papers 277, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  4. Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January.
  5. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-70, November.
  6. Barro, Robert J., 1978. "Unanticipated Money, Output, and the Price Level in the United States," Scholarly Articles 3450988, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  7. Fair, Ray C & Taylor, John B, 1983. "Solution and Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Dynamic Nonlinear Rational Expectations Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(4), pages 1169-85, July.
  8. Russell Davidson & James G. MacKinnon, 1980. "Several Tests for Model Specification in the Presence of Alternative Hypotheses," Working Papers 378, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  9. Fair, Ray C, 1980. "Estimating the Expected Predictive Accuracy of Econometric Models," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 21(2), pages 355-78, June.
  10. Chong, Yock Y & Hendry, David F, 1986. "Econometric Evaluation of Linear Macro-Economic Models," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 53(4), pages 671-90, August.
  11. Laidler, D., 1991. "The Cycle Before New-Classical Economies," UWO Department of Economics Working Papers 9115, University of Western Ontario, Department of Economics.
  12. Christiano, Lawrence J & Eichenbaum, Martin, 1992. "Current Real-Business-Cycle Theories and Aggregate Labor-Market Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(3), pages 430-50, June.
  13. Fair, Ray C & Shiller, Robert J, 1990. "Comparing Information in Forecasts from Econometric Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(3), pages 375-89, June.
  14. Hall, Robert E, 1978. "Stochastic Implications of the Life Cycle-Permanent Income Hypothesis: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(6), pages 971-87, December.
  15. Chow, G.C., 1993. "Statistical Estimation and Testing of a Real Business Cycle Model," Papers 365, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
  16. Hansen, Lars Peter & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1982. "Generalized Instrumental Variables Estimation of Nonlinear Rational Expectations Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(5), pages 1269-86, September.
  17. Hendry, David F. & Richard, Jean-Francois, 1982. "On the formulation of empirical models in dynamic econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 3-33, October.
  18. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-54, July.
  19. Laidler, David & Bentley, Brian, 1983. "A Small Macro-Model of the Post-War United States," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 51(4), pages 317-40, December.
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Cited by:
  1. Marco Del Negro & Frank Schorfheide, 2003. "Take your model bowling: forecasting with general equilibrium models," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, issue Q4, pages 35-50.
  2. Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 1998. "An optimizing model for monetary policy analysis: can habit formation help?," Working Papers 98-1, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.

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