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North American Natural Gas Supply Forecast: The Hubbert Method Including the Effects of Institutions

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  • Douglas B. Reynolds

    ()
    (Department of Economics, School of Management, University of Alaska Fairbanks, P.O. Box 756080, Fairbanks, AK 99775-6080; USA)

  • Marek Kolodziej

    ()
    (Center for Energy and Environmental Studies, Boston University, Boston, MA, USA)

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    Abstract

    In this article, the U.S. and southern Canadian natural gas supply market is considered. An important model for oil and natural gas supply is the Hubbert curve. Not all regions of the world are producing oil or natural gas following a Hubbert curve, even when price and market conditions are accounted for. One reason is that institutions are affecting supply. We investigate the possible effects of oil and gas market institutions in North America on natural gas supply. A multi-cycle Hubbert curve with inflection points similar to the Soviet Union’s oil production multi-cycle Hubbert curve is used to determine North American natural gas discovery rates and to analyze how market specific institutions caused the inflection points. In addition, we analyze the latest shale natural gas projections critically. While currently, unconventional resources of natural gas suggest that North American natural gas production will increase without bound, the model here suggests a peak in North American natural gas supplies could happen in 2013.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by MDPI, Open Access Journal in its journal Energies.

    Volume (Year): 2 (2009)
    Issue (Month): 2 (May)
    Pages: 269-306

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    Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:2:y:2009:i:2:p:269-306:d:5072

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    Related research

    Keywords: energy supply; Hubbert curve; institutional economics; regulated industries; natural gas;

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    References

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    1. Oliver E. Williamson, 2000. "The New Institutional Economics: Taking Stock, Looking Ahead," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 38(3), pages 595-613, September.
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    8. Bruce E. Hansen, 1995. "Approximate Asymptotic P-Values for Structural Change Tests," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 297., Boston College Department of Economics.
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    10. David F. Hendry & Katarina Juselius, 2001. "Explaining Cointegration Analysis: Part II," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 75-120.
    11. Norgaard, Richard B., 1990. "Economic indicators of resource scarcity: A critical essay," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 19-25, July.
    12. Daron Acemoglu & Simon Johnson & James A. Robinson, 2000. "The Colonial Origins of Comparative Development: An Empirical Investigation," NBER Working Papers 7771, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Brandt, Adam R., 2007. "Testing Hubbert," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 3074-3088, May.
    14. Reynolds, Douglas B. & Kolodziej, Marek, 2007. "Institutions and the supply of oil: A case study of Russia," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 939-949, February.
    15. Bardi, Ugo, 2005. "The mineral economy: a model for the shape of oil production curves," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 53-61, January.
    16. Reynolds, Douglas B. & Kolodziej, Marek, 2008. "Former Soviet Union oil production and GDP decline: Granger causality and the multi-cycle Hubbert curve," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 271-289, March.
    17. Svetlana Maslyuk & Russell Smyth, 2007. "Non-Linear Unit Root Properties of Crude Oil Production," Development Research Unit Working Paper Series 39-07, Monash University, Department of Economics.
    18. Reynolds, Douglas B., 1999. "The mineral economy: how prices and costs can falsely signal decreasing scarcity," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 155-166, October.
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    Cited by:
    1. Reynolds, Douglas B., 2014. "World oil production trend: Comparing Hubbert multi-cycle curves," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 62-71.
    2. Reynolds, Douglas B. & Pippenger, Michael K., 2010. "OPEC and Venezuelan oil production: Evidence against a cartel hypothesis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(10), pages 6045-6055, October.
    3. Reynolds, Douglas B. & Baek, Jungho, 2012. "Much ado about Hotelling: Beware the ides of Hubbert," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 162-170.

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